How often are these flights late or cancelled?
Nigeria
In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 22.4% of 1,642 movements arriving into the UK were disrupted — more than fifteen minutes late or cancelled at short notice.
Put the other way round, 77.6% of 1,642 movements met the fifteen-minute convention. These are historical observations, not a forecast.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
The four numbers at a glance
22.4% of 1,642 movements were disrupted over July 2025 to June 2026.
Average delay covers delayed movements only. Its range reflects rounded source means and the unknown count of exactly punctual movements.
| Disruption | Short-notice cancellations | Delay among delayed movements | Over three hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22.4% of 1,642 movements | 0.6% of 1,642 movements | 29.1–65.6 minutes; delayed denominator 358–751 | 0.9% of 1,642 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
When late, how late?
0.9% of 1,642 movements passed the three-hour mark.
The ladder shows how many movements crossed each threshold. Cancellations are separate: 0.6% of 1,642 movements.
| Delay | Share and sample | One event per movements |
|---|---|---|
| More than 15 minutes | 21.8% of 1,642 movements | 4.6 |
| More than 30 minutes | 11.4% of 1,642 movements | 8.7 |
| More than 60 minutes | 4.3% of 1,642 movements | 23.1 |
| More than 120 minutes | 1.9% of 1,642 movements | 53.0 |
| More than 180 minutes | 0.9% of 1,642 movements | 117.3 |
| More than 360 minutes | 0.3% of 1,642 movements | 328.4 |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Slightly late or occasionally a disaster?
1.9% of 1,642 movements passed two hours.
The histogram shows the published delay bands. Bucket shares use all reported operations, including unmatched records; cancellations are reported separately.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Better or worse since the start of the archive?
Best month: Apr 2018, 2.2% of 90 movements. Worst month: Aug 2021, 52.7% of 93 movements.
The line traces every month. Lower disruption is better; gaps are never zeros. Pandemic readings describe a different operating regime.
Every monthly observation
| Month | Disruption on arrivals |
|---|---|
| Jan 2018 | 23.6% of 110 movements |
| Feb 2018 | 19.8% of 96 movements |
| Mar 2018 | 16.0% of 100 movements |
| Apr 2018 | 2.2% of 90 movements |
| May 2018 | 8.6% of 93 movements |
| Jun 2018 | 6.7% of 90 movements |
| Jul 2018 | 9.7% of 93 movements |
| Aug 2018 | 9.7% of 93 movements |
| Sep 2018 | 6.7% of 90 movements |
| Oct 2018 | 11.8% of 93 movements |
| Nov 2018 | 9.9% of 91 movements |
| Dec 2018 | 17.2% of 93 movements |
| Jan 2019 | 17.2% of 93 movements |
| Feb 2019 | 13.1% of 84 movements |
| Mar 2019 | 3.2% of 93 movements |
| Apr 2019 | 12.2% of 90 movements |
| May 2019 | 18.3% of 93 movements |
| Jun 2019 | 10.0% of 90 movements |
| Jul 2019 | 10.8% of 93 movements |
| Aug 2019 | 10.8% of 93 movements |
| Sep 2019 | 10.3% of 87 movements |
| Oct 2019 | 11.8% of 93 movements |
| Nov 2019 | 7.8% of 90 movements |
| Dec 2019 | 9.7% of 93 movements |
| Jan 2020 | 13.8% of 94 movements |
| Feb 2020 | 27.6% of 87 movements |
| Mar 2020 | 26.5% of 83 movements |
| Apr 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| May 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jun 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jul 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Aug 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Sep 2020 | 36.4% of 44 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Oct 2020 | 16.2% of 80 movements |
| Nov 2020 | 7.4% of 68 movements |
| Dec 2020 | 9.7% of 93 movements |
| Jan 2021 | 16.0% of 94 movements |
| Feb 2021 | 15.8% of 76 movements |
| Mar 2021 | 9.4% of 85 movements |
| Apr 2021 | 18.9% of 90 movements |
| May 2021 | 4.3% of 93 movements |
| Jun 2021 | 34.8% of 89 movements |
| Jul 2021 | 22.6% of 93 movements |
| Aug 2021 | 52.7% of 93 movements |
| Sep 2021 | 43.3% of 90 movements |
| Oct 2021 | 29.0% of 93 movements |
| Nov 2021 | 11.1% of 90 movements |
| Dec 2021 | 28.4% of 95 movements |
| Jan 2022 | 32.6% of 92 movements |
| Feb 2022 | 31.0% of 84 movements |
| Mar 2022 | 14.0% of 93 movements |
| Apr 2022 | 12.2% of 90 movements |
| May 2022 | 17.2% of 93 movements |
| Jun 2022 | 25.7% of 74 movements |
| Jul 2022 | 18.7% of 75 movements |
| Aug 2022 | 11.8% of 76 movements |
| Sep 2022 | 19.2% of 73 movements |
| Oct 2022 | 14.1% of 78 movements |
| Nov 2022 | 4.5% of 89 movements |
| Dec 2022 | 13.7% of 95 movements |
| Jan 2023 | 18.9% of 95 movements |
| Feb 2023 | 11.9% of 84 movements |
| Mar 2023 | 11.8% of 93 movements |
| Apr 2023 | 15.6% of 90 movements |
| May 2023 | 16.1% of 93 movements |
| Jun 2023 | 12.2% of 90 movements |
| Jul 2023 | 18.1% of 94 movements |
| Aug 2023 | 39.8% of 93 movements |
| Sep 2023 | 25.6% of 90 movements |
| Oct 2023 | 18.9% of 95 movements |
| Nov 2023 | 14.3% of 91 movements |
| Dec 2023 | 17.2% of 93 movements |
| Jan 2024 | 14.0% of 93 movements |
| Feb 2024 | 44.8% of 87 movements |
| Mar 2024 | 23.2% of 95 movements |
| Apr 2024 | 8.6% of 116 movements |
| May 2024 | 9.9% of 121 movements |
| Jun 2024 | 11.1% of 117 movements |
| Jul 2024 | 9.8% of 122 movements |
| Aug 2024 | 8.3% of 120 movements |
| Sep 2024 | 11.8% of 119 movements |
| Oct 2024 | 14.0% of 121 movements |
| Nov 2024 | 12.5% of 120 movements |
| Dec 2024 | 21.0% of 124 movements |
| Jan 2025 | 16.9% of 124 movements |
| Feb 2025 | 10.7% of 112 movements |
| Mar 2025 | 13.6% of 125 movements |
| Apr 2025 | 14.2% of 120 movements |
| May 2025 | 11.3% of 124 movements |
| Jun 2025 | 3.3% of 120 movements |
| Jul 2025 | 5.6% of 124 movements |
| Aug 2025 | 11.3% of 124 movements |
| Sep 2025 | 12.5% of 120 movements |
| Oct 2025 | 19.4% of 129 movements |
| Nov 2025 | 19.2% of 146 movements |
| Dec 2025 | 22.7% of 150 movements |
| Jan 2026 | 33.1% of 151 movements |
| Feb 2026 | 31.6% of 136 movements |
| Mar 2026 | 24.7% of 150 movements |
| Apr 2026 | 37.1% of 143 movements |
| May 2026 | 23.0% of 139 movements |
| Jun 2026 | 23.1% of 130 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What did the big disruptions do here?
Each event is compared with the twelve preceding calendar months and the first later return to baseline.
A worse month is not proof the named event caused it. The open data carry no delay-cause field. Recovery is observed for at most eight subsequent months.
| Event | Direction | Disruption that month | Baseline before | Return to baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Arrivals | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Departures | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Arrivals | 18.7% of 75 movements | 26.7% across 1,080 flights | returned the next month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Departures | 60.0% of 75 movements | 47.1% across 1,077 flights | returned the next month |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Arrivals | 39.8% of 93 movements | 14.0% across 1,050 flights | returned after 5 months |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Departures | 32.3% of 93 movements | 41.5% across 1,046 flights | returned the next month |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Arrivals | 13.6% of 125 movements | 13.2% across 1,411 flights | returned after 2 months |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Departures | 22.6% of 124 movements | 35.8% across 1,408 flights | returned the next month |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which time of year has been hardest?
Highest median: Feb, 19.8% across 7 months. Lowest median: Jul, 10.3% across 6 months.
Even the same calendar month differs across years. This is a record, not a forecast; pandemic years are excluded from the summaries.
Each cell is one calendar month of one year; the number is the share of that month’s arrivals that were disrupted. Darker means worse. A blank cell means no published data, not zero.
Month-by-month table: median, observed range and sample
| Month | Median | Observed range | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 18.9% | 14.0–33.1% | 7 months, 758 flights |
| Feb | 19.8% | 10.7–44.8% | 7 months, 683 flights |
| Mar | 14.0% | 3.2–24.7% | 7 months, 749 flights |
| Apr | 12.2% | 2.2–37.1% | 7 months, 739 flights |
| May | 16.1% | 8.6–23.0% | 7 months, 756 flights |
| Jun | 11.1% | 3.3–25.7% | 7 months, 711 flights |
| Jul | 10.3% | 5.6–18.7% | 6 months, 601 flights |
| Aug | 11.0% | 8.3–39.8% | 6 months, 599 flights |
| Sep | 12.1% | 6.7–25.6% | 6 months, 579 flights |
| Oct | 14.1% | 11.8–19.4% | 6 months, 609 flights |
| Nov | 11.2% | 4.5–19.2% | 6 months, 627 flights |
| Dec | 17.2% | 9.7–22.7% | 6 months, 648 flights |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which routes have the best and worst record?
Lowest disruption: LHR ↔ LAGOS, 14.5% of 730 movements. Highest disruption: LGW ↔ ABUJA, 69.0% of 87 movements.
The airline table uses this carrier on each route; airport and country tables combine carriers. Each figure is arrivals into its UK airport. Only sufficiently large exact samples enter the ordered comparison.
All route comparisons and sample flags
| Route | Disruption | Cancellations | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heathrow ↔ Lagos | 14.5% of 730 movements | 0.1% of 730 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LHR ↔ ABUJA | 20.7% of 460 movements | 0.9% of 460 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LGW ↔ LAGOS | 29.3% of 365 movements | 0.8% of 365 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LGW ↔ ABUJA | 69.0% of 87 movements | 2.3% of 87 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which UK airports appear in this record?
2 published groups have enough arrivals to describe.
These operations are not matched for season, aircraft or time of day. The table makes no causal comparison.
| UK airport | Disruption | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|
| Gatwick | 36.9% of 452 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Heathrow | 16.9% of 1,190 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Arrivals vs departures
22.4% of 1,642 movements arrivals were disrupted, against 25.7% of 1,644 movements departures.
The directions have separate denominators. A departure delay does not establish late arrival at the final destination; legal conditions differ by direction and carrier.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Movements past the three-hour mark
0.9% of 1,642 movements were more than three hours late over July 2025 to June 2026.
Cancellation is counted separately and is not a three-hour delay. Monthly counts cannot establish a passenger claim.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Facts about this record
Nigeria appears from Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 with 9,718 arrivals.
The bounds describe the published record, not every commercial service. Final point is not necessarily a nonstop destination.
Archive route pairs: 12.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What this data cannot tell you
Delay cause, individual passenger experience, commercial decisions and future performance are not established here.
Also absent are aircraft type, within-month time-of-day splits and cancellations made ahead of the short-notice reporting window.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Quick answers
These answers use the same populations and window as the tables above.
Every percentage retains its denominator.
How disrupted are these arrivals?
22.4% of 1,642 movements over July 2025 to June 2026.
How often are they cancelled?
0.6% of 1,642 movements at short notice.
How late is late?
29.1–65.6 minutes; delayed denominator 358–751
Are services improving?
The monthly line records past changes; it is not a forecast or a causal comparison.
Which routes are compared?
The route table uses separately identified UK airport and final-point pairs, with small samples flagged.
Does this cover my flight?
Only published aggregate movements; the circumstances of any individual flight are unknown.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
How this was calculated
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
Integer bucket counts are recovered from rounding intervals over D=M+C+U with their sum constrained to M. Ambiguous counts remain ranges; failed reconciliation is quarantined.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Your trip has already gone wrong
The monthly line and events table show whether your month was typical or unusual in the published record.
Nothing here decides an individual case or what a passenger may be owed.
CAA: the official route to complainDefinitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.