How often are these flights late or cancelled?
Republic Of South Africa
In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 12.2% of 2,003 movements arriving into the UK were disrupted — more than fifteen minutes late or cancelled at short notice.
Put the other way round, 87.8% of 2,003 movements met the fifteen-minute convention. These are historical observations, not a forecast.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
The four numbers at a glance
12.2% of 2,003 movements were disrupted over July 2025 to June 2026.
Average delay covers delayed movements only. Its range reflects rounded source means and the unknown count of exactly punctual movements.
| Disruption | Short-notice cancellations | Delay among delayed movements | Over three hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.2% of 2,003 movements | 1.3% of 2,003 movements | 44.8–119.8 minutes; delayed denominator 218–540 | 1.3% of 2,003 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
When late, how late?
1.3% of 2,003 movements passed the three-hour mark.
The ladder shows how many movements crossed each threshold. Cancellations are separate: 1.3% of 2,003 movements.
| Delay | Share and sample | One event per movements |
|---|---|---|
| More than 15 minutes | 10.9% of 2,003 movements | 9.2 |
| More than 30 minutes | 6.0% of 2,003 movements | 16.6 |
| More than 60 minutes | 3.3% of 2,003 movements | 30.3 |
| More than 120 minutes | 1.9% of 2,003 movements | 51.4 |
| More than 180 minutes | 1.3% of 2,003 movements | 74.2 |
| More than 360 minutes | 0.7% of 2,003 movements | 143.1 |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Slightly late or occasionally a disaster?
1.9% of 2,003 movements passed two hours.
The histogram shows the published delay bands. Bucket shares use all reported operations, including unmatched records; cancellations are reported separately.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Better or worse since the start of the archive?
Best month: Jul 2024, 2.4% of 124 movements. Worst month: Aug 2023, 42.7% of 124 movements.
The line traces every month. Lower disruption is better; gaps are never zeros. Pandemic readings describe a different operating regime.
Every monthly observation
| Month | Disruption on arrivals |
|---|---|
| Jan 2018 | 19.8% of 243 movements |
| Feb 2018 | 20.2% of 218 movements |
| Mar 2018 | 14.1% of 227 movements |
| Apr 2018 | 9.8% of 173 movements |
| May 2018 | 12.9% of 155 movements |
| Jun 2018 | 12.7% of 150 movements |
| Jul 2018 | 10.9% of 156 movements |
| Aug 2018 | 11.0% of 155 movements |
| Sep 2018 | 18.7% of 150 movements |
| Oct 2018 | 21.0% of 162 movements |
| Nov 2018 | 17.9% of 246 movements |
| Dec 2018 | 24.3% of 268 movements |
| Jan 2019 | 17.9% of 273 movements |
| Feb 2019 | 15.4% of 246 movements |
| Mar 2019 | 11.5% of 261 movements |
| Apr 2019 | 18.4% of 212 movements |
| May 2019 | 12.2% of 213 movements |
| Jun 2019 | 7.7% of 194 movements |
| Jul 2019 | 9.0% of 200 movements |
| Aug 2019 | 13.0% of 200 movements |
| Sep 2019 | 13.8% of 189 movements |
| Oct 2019 | 15.5% of 194 movements |
| Nov 2019 | 15.1% of 218 movements |
| Dec 2019 | 14.5% of 242 movements |
| Jan 2020 | 11.1% of 234 movements |
| Feb 2020 | 24.0% of 225 movements |
| Mar 2020 | 26.7% of 206 movements |
| Apr 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| May 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jun 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jul 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Aug 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Sep 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Oct 2020 | 10.6% of 66 movements |
| Nov 2020 | 6.0% of 50 movements |
| Dec 2020 | 16.9% of 65 movements |
| Jan 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Feb 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Mar 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Apr 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| May 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jun 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jul 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Aug 2021 | 4.5% of 22 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Sep 2021 | 13.6% of 22 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Oct 2021 | 19.4% of 31 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Nov 2021 | 26.0% of 73 movements |
| Dec 2021 | 38.4% of 73 movements |
| Jan 2022 | 15.4% of 104 movements |
| Feb 2022 | 17.3% of 110 movements |
| Mar 2022 | 21.1% of 123 movements |
| Apr 2022 | 18.0% of 122 movements |
| May 2022 | 12.1% of 124 movements |
| Jun 2022 | 4.3% of 92 movements |
| Jul 2022 | 8.6% of 93 movements |
| Aug 2022 | 9.0% of 122 movements |
| Sep 2022 | 5.0% of 120 movements |
| Oct 2022 | 6.5% of 124 movements |
| Nov 2022 | 8.4% of 154 movements |
| Dec 2022 | 3.2% of 189 movements |
| Jan 2023 | 7.5% of 200 movements |
| Feb 2023 | 11.7% of 179 movements |
| Mar 2023 | 14.8% of 189 movements |
| Apr 2023 | 20.8% of 120 movements |
| May 2023 | 26.6% of 124 movements |
| Jun 2023 | 17.9% of 123 movements |
| Jul 2023 | 14.4% of 125 movements |
| Aug 2023 | 42.7% of 124 movements |
| Sep 2023 | 15.0% of 120 movements |
| Oct 2023 | 18.5% of 130 movements |
| Nov 2023 | 24.9% of 193 movements |
| Dec 2023 | 31.1% of 196 movements |
| Jan 2024 | 23.6% of 199 movements |
| Feb 2024 | 23.5% of 187 movements |
| Mar 2024 | 13.5% of 200 movements |
| Apr 2024 | 14.9% of 121 movements |
| May 2024 | 10.5% of 105 movements |
| Jun 2024 | 9.2% of 120 movements |
| Jul 2024 | 2.4% of 124 movements |
| Aug 2024 | 7.3% of 124 movements |
| Sep 2024 | 9.2% of 120 movements |
| Oct 2024 | 7.5% of 134 movements |
| Nov 2024 | 13.5% of 192 movements |
| Dec 2024 | 20.4% of 206 movements |
| Jan 2025 | 15.5% of 220 movements |
| Feb 2025 | 9.8% of 205 movements |
| Mar 2025 | 13.7% of 226 movements |
| Apr 2025 | 16.9% of 136 movements |
| May 2025 | 7.3% of 124 movements |
| Jun 2025 | 5.8% of 121 movements |
| Jul 2025 | 8.9% of 124 movements |
| Aug 2025 | 7.2% of 125 movements |
| Sep 2025 | 8.3% of 120 movements |
| Oct 2025 | 8.0% of 163 movements |
| Nov 2025 | 17.1% of 216 movements |
| Dec 2025 | 10.7% of 214 movements |
| Jan 2026 | 9.8% of 214 movements |
| Feb 2026 | 12.8% of 196 movements |
| Mar 2026 | 13.7% of 219 movements |
| Apr 2026 | 19.9% of 156 movements |
| May 2026 | 14.7% of 136 movements |
| Jun 2026 | 11.7% of 120 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What did the big disruptions do here?
Each event is compared with the twelve preceding calendar months and the first later return to baseline.
A worse month is not proof the named event caused it. The open data carry no delay-cause field. Recovery is observed for at most eight subsequent months.
| Event | Direction | Disruption that month | Baseline before | Return to baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Arrivals | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Departures | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Arrivals | 8.6% of 93 movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Departures | 53.8% of 93 movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Arrivals | 42.7% of 124 movements | 12.2% across 1,769 flights | still above it 8 months later |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Departures | 43.5% of 124 movements | 43.5% across 1,770 flights | returned after 2 months |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Arrivals | 13.7% of 226 movements | 11.1% across 1,871 flights | returned after 2 months |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Departures | 19.6% of 224 movements | 25.9% across 1,866 flights | returned the next month |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which time of year has been hardest?
Highest median: Apr, 18.0% across 7 months. Lowest median: Jul, 8.9% across 6 months.
Even the same calendar month differs across years. This is a record, not a forecast; pandemic years are excluded from the summaries.
Each cell is one calendar month of one year; the number is the share of that month’s arrivals that were disrupted. Darker means worse. A blank cell means no published data, not zero.
Month-by-month table: median, observed range and sample
| Month | Median | Observed range | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 15.5% | 7.5–23.6% | 7 months, 1,453 flights |
| Feb | 15.4% | 9.8–23.5% | 7 months, 1,341 flights |
| Mar | 13.7% | 11.5–21.1% | 7 months, 1,445 flights |
| Apr | 18.0% | 9.8–20.8% | 7 months, 1,040 flights |
| May | 12.2% | 7.3–26.6% | 7 months, 981 flights |
| Jun | 9.2% | 4.3–17.9% | 7 months, 920 flights |
| Jul | 8.9% | 2.4–14.4% | 6 months, 822 flights |
| Aug | 10.0% | 7.2–42.7% | 6 months, 850 flights |
| Sep | 11.5% | 5.0–18.7% | 6 months, 819 flights |
| Oct | 11.7% | 6.5–21.0% | 6 months, 907 flights |
| Nov | 16.1% | 8.4–24.9% | 6 months, 1,219 flights |
| Dec | 17.4% | 3.2–31.1% | 6 months, 1,315 flights |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which routes have the best and worst record?
Lowest disruption: LHR ↔ CAPE-TOWN, 10.7% of 766 movements. Highest disruption: LGW ↔ CAPE-TOWN, 25.7% of 140 movements.
The airline table uses this carrier on each route; airport and country tables combine carriers. Each figure is arrivals into its UK airport. Only sufficiently large exact samples enter the ordered comparison.
All route comparisons and sample flags
| Route | Disruption | Cancellations | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heathrow ↔ Cape Town | 10.7% of 766 movements | 0.7% of 766 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Heathrow ↔ Johannesburg | 11.5% of 1,097 movements | 1.6% of 1,097 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LGW ↔ CAPE-TOWN | 25.7% of 140 movements | 2.1% of 140 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which UK airports appear in this record?
2 published groups have enough arrivals to describe.
These operations are not matched for season, aircraft or time of day. The table makes no causal comparison.
| UK airport | Disruption | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|
| Gatwick | 25.7% of 140 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Heathrow | 11.2% of 1,863 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Arrivals vs departures
12.2% of 2,003 movements arrivals were disrupted, against 24.6% of 1,999 movements departures.
The directions have separate denominators. A departure delay does not establish late arrival at the final destination; legal conditions differ by direction and carrier.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Movements past the three-hour mark
1.3% of 2,003 movements were more than three hours late over July 2025 to June 2026.
Cancellation is counted separately and is not a three-hour delay. Monthly counts cannot establish a passenger claim.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Facts about this record
Republic Of South Africa appears from Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 with 14,231 arrivals.
The bounds describe the published record, not every commercial service. Final point is not necessarily a nonstop destination.
Archive route pairs: 11.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What this data cannot tell you
Delay cause, individual passenger experience, commercial decisions and future performance are not established here.
Also absent are aircraft type, within-month time-of-day splits and cancellations made ahead of the short-notice reporting window.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Quick answers
These answers use the same populations and window as the tables above.
Every percentage retains its denominator.
How disrupted are these arrivals?
12.2% of 2,003 movements over July 2025 to June 2026.
How often are they cancelled?
1.3% of 2,003 movements at short notice.
How late is late?
44.8–119.8 minutes; delayed denominator 218–540
Are services improving?
The monthly line records past changes; it is not a forecast or a causal comparison.
Which routes are compared?
The route table uses separately identified UK airport and final-point pairs, with small samples flagged.
Does this cover my flight?
Only published aggregate movements; the circumstances of any individual flight are unknown.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
How this was calculated
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
Integer bucket counts are recovered from rounding intervals over D=M+C+U with their sum constrained to M. Ambiguous counts remain ranges; failed reconciliation is quarantined.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Your trip has already gone wrong
The monthly line and events table show whether your month was typical or unusual in the published record.
Nothing here decides an individual case or what a passenger may be owed.
CAA: the official route to complainDefinitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.