UK FLIGHT DELAY INDEX

derived from CAA punctuality statistics for UK reporting airports

How often are these flights late or cancelled?

LTN ↔ DUBLIN

In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 29.3% of 1,295 movements arriving into LTN were disrupted — that is, they landed more than fifteen minutes late or were cancelled at short notice.

Put the other way round, 70.7% of 1,295 movements arrived on time by the industry's fifteen-minute standard. Severe delays were rarer: about one arrival in every 162 crossed the three-hour mark. Lower is better on every figure on this page. These numbers describe what happened on the route; they are not a prediction for any individual flight.

Definitions, denominators and limits
  • “Disrupted” means an arrival more than fifteen minutes late or a short-notice cancellation. The denominator is operated movements plus short-notice cancellations.
  • Arrivals into the UK airport only; all published carriers.
  • Crossing three hours is one condition for compensation, but monthly data cannot establish any individual passenger’s rights.
  • Delay cause is not published in the open data.
  • Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1.

0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.

The four numbers at a glance

In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 29.3% of 1,295 movements were disrupted and 0.1% of 1,295 movements were cancelled at short notice.

When a flight was late, it was typically late by the range shown below. The delay is given as a range, not a single number, because the regulator rounds its published percentages and never says how many flights landed exactly on time.

Disruption shareShort-notice cancellationsAverage delay among delayed flights only — boundsOperations
29.3% of 1,295 movements0.1% of 1,295 movements32.1–60.7 min; N of delayed flights=378–6741,295
Definitions, denominators and limits

The bounds account for CAA rounding and the unknown number of zero delays. A point average across all operated movements, including punctual ones, would answer a different question and is not used here.

When it is late, how late is it?

Most delays here are short. The ladder below shows how many arrivals crossed each threshold, from a quarter of an hour up to six hours; each rung can only be smaller than the one above it.

Cancellations are counted separately: 0.1% of 1,295 movements. “One in N” means how many arrivals you would typically see between events at that level.

Delay threshold ladder; count and share of known operations15 min29.2%30 min17.8%60 min7.4%120 min2.1%180 min0.6%360 min0.2%
Delay ladder table: share, movements and one-in-N
DelayShare and nMovementsOne delay in every N operations
>15 min29.2% of 1,295 movements3783.4
>30 min17.8% of 1,295 movements2305.6
>60 min7.4% of 1,295 movements9613.5
>120 min2.1% of 1,295 movements2748.0
>180 min0.6% of 1,295 movements8161.9
>360 min0.2% of 1,295 movements2647.5
Definitions, denominators and limits

CAA counts delays strictly greater than each threshold, so exactly three hours is inseparable from the previous bucket. The ladder describes the archive, not a forecast.

Slightly late, or occasionally a disaster?

This route runs late less often than most, but when it does go wrong it tends to go badly wrong: its long delays are heavier than on the typical UK route.

The histogram below counts every recorded arrival, from more than fifteen minutes early through to more than six hours late. A tall bar near the middle and a thin right-hand tail is the healthy shape.

Nine delay buckets, minutes; share of all recorded operations>15 early15612.0%15–1 early46435.8%0–15 late29622.9%16–3014811.4%31–6013410.3%61…120695.3%121…180191.5%181…36060.5%>36020.2%D=1,295
Definitions, denominators and limits

Ratio of the long tail to sixteen-to-sixty-minute delays: 0.0284; corpus median 0.0217; 2056 routes in the corpus. The shape is compared conditionally among delays; the class name does not measure absolute frequency. Histogram counts and shares cover all recorded operations including unmatched records; reconstructed uniquely.

Has this route got better or worse since 2018?

Best month: Nov 2021, 3.9% of 77 movements. Worst month: Dec 2022, 55.4% of 83 movements.

The line traces every month in the archive; lower is better. Gaps are months with no published data, never zeros. The 2020 and 2021 readings reflect the pandemic, not normal service.

Monthly disruption share; gaps mean no published dataJan 2018: 9.8%; sample: 922018Feb 2018: 12.5%; sample: 80Mar 2018: 21.3%; sample: 89Apr 2018: 28.9%; sample: 90May 2018: 21.3%; sample: 94Jun 2018: 27.8%; sample: 90Jul 2018: 20.4%; sample: 93Aug 2018: 9.7%; sample: 93Sep 2018: 15.4%; sample: 91Oct 2018: 14.0%; sample: 93Nov 2018: 18.6%; sample: 86Dec 2018: 30.0%; sample: 90Jan 2019: 13.2%; sample: 912019Feb 2019: 10.0%; sample: 80Mar 2019: 14.8%; sample: 88Apr 2019: 31.3%; sample: 99May 2019: 23.3%; sample: 103Jun 2019: 31.6%; sample: 98Jul 2019: 25.2%; sample: 103Aug 2019: 34.3%; sample: 102Sep 2019: 32.0%; sample: 100Oct 2019: 22.0%; sample: 100Nov 2019: 5.9%; sample: 85Dec 2019: 14.3%; sample: 84Jan 2020: 12.4%; sample: 892020Feb 2020: 20.7%; sample: 82Mar 2020: 18.8%; sample: 69Apr 2020: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×May 2020: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×Jun 2020: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×Jul 2020: 0.0%; sample: 44Aug 2020: 0.0%; sample: 48Sep 2020: 4.8%; sample: 42Oct 2020: 0.0%; sample: 21Nov 2020: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×Dec 2020: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×Jan 2021: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×2021Feb 2021: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×Mar 2021: suppressed: fewer than twenty movements×Apr 2021: no data×May 2021: no data×Jun 2021: no data×Jul 2021: 3.2%; sample: 31Aug 2021: 15.6%; sample: 32Sep 2021: 11.8%; sample: 51Oct 2021: 17.9%; sample: 56Nov 2021: 3.9%; sample: 77Dec 2021: 10.6%; sample: 85Jan 2022: 4.3%; sample: 472022Feb 2022: 17.2%; sample: 64Mar 2022: 10.0%; sample: 90Apr 2022: 23.8%; sample: 101May 2022: 29.6%; sample: 108Jun 2022: 41.2%; sample: 102Jul 2022: 55.0%; sample: 109Aug 2022: 43.4%; sample: 106Sep 2022: 37.5%; sample: 104Oct 2022: 46.7%; sample: 105Nov 2022: 34.5%; sample: 84Dec 2022: 55.4%; sample: 83Jan 2023: 14.8%; sample: 882023Feb 2023: 16.2%; sample: 80Mar 2023: 26.3%; sample: 95Apr 2023: 33.6%; sample: 107May 2023: 38.7%; sample: 111Jun 2023: 46.7%; sample: 107Jul 2023: 35.5%; sample: 110Aug 2023: 41.1%; sample: 112Sep 2023: 43.4%; sample: 106Oct 2023: 40.7%; sample: 108Nov 2023: 13.1%; sample: 84Dec 2023: 24.1%; sample: 87Jan 2024: 11.5%; sample: 872024Feb 2024: 9.8%; sample: 82Mar 2024: 18.3%; sample: 93Apr 2024: 36.4%; sample: 107May 2024: 28.2%; sample: 110Jun 2024: 36.1%; sample: 108Jul 2024: 49.1%; sample: 110Aug 2024: 36.9%; sample: 111Sep 2024: 45.9%; sample: 109Oct 2024: 35.9%; sample: 103Nov 2024: 20.7%; sample: 87Dec 2024: 31.5%; sample: 89Jan 2025: 23.3%; sample: 862025Feb 2025: 20.0%; sample: 80Mar 2025: 16.3%; sample: 92Apr 2025: 34.0%; sample: 106May 2025: 30.6%; sample: 111Jun 2025: 41.7%; sample: 108Jul 2025: 38.5%; sample: 109Aug 2025: 33.0%; sample: 112Sep 2025: 47.2%; sample: 108Oct 2025: 35.5%; sample: 107Nov 2025: 24.8%; sample: 101Dec 2025: 33.0%; sample: 94Jan 2026: 16.3%; sample: 1042026Feb 2026: 19.6%; sample: 92Mar 2026: 22.1%; sample: 104Apr 2026: 20.8%; sample: 120May 2026: 20.2%; sample: 124Jun 2026: 39.2%; sample: 120Pandemic regime Jun 2020Summer 2022 breakdown Jul 2022NATS system failure Aug 2023Heathrow fire closure Mar 2025100%0%
Every month since 2018, including gaps and suppressed cells
MonthDisruption on arrivals
Jan 20189.8% of 92 movements
Feb 201812.5% of 80 movements
Mar 201821.3% of 89 movements
Apr 201828.9% of 90 movements
May 201821.3% of 94 movements
Jun 201827.8% of 90 movements
Jul 201820.4% of 93 movements
Aug 20189.7% of 93 movements
Sep 201815.4% of 91 movements
Oct 201814.0% of 93 movements
Nov 201818.6% of 86 movements
Dec 201830.0% of 90 movements
Jan 201913.2% of 91 movements
Feb 201910.0% of 80 movements
Mar 201914.8% of 88 movements
Apr 201931.3% of 99 movements
May 201923.3% of 103 movements
Jun 201931.6% of 98 movements
Jul 201925.2% of 103 movements
Aug 201934.3% of 102 movements
Sep 201932.0% of 100 movements
Oct 201922.0% of 100 movements
Nov 20195.9% of 85 movements
Dec 201914.3% of 84 movements
Jan 202012.4% of 89 movements
Feb 202020.7% of 82 movements
Mar 202018.8% of 69 movements
Apr 2020suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
May 2020suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
Jun 2020suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
Jul 2020no events in 44 movements — small sample, not ranked
Aug 2020no events in 48 movements — small sample, not ranked
Sep 20204.8% of 42 movements — small sample, not ranked
Oct 2020no events in 21 movements — small sample, not ranked
Nov 2020suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
Dec 2020suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
Jan 2021suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
Feb 2021suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
Mar 2021suppressed: fewer than twenty movements
Apr 2021no data
May 2021no data
Jun 2021no data
Jul 20213.2% of 31 movements — small sample, not ranked
Aug 202115.6% of 32 movements — small sample, not ranked
Sep 202111.8% of 51 movements
Oct 202117.9% of 56 movements
Nov 20213.9% of 77 movements
Dec 202110.6% of 85 movements
Jan 20224.3% of 47 movements — small sample, not ranked
Feb 202217.2% of 64 movements
Mar 202210.0% of 90 movements
Apr 202223.8% of 101 movements
May 202229.6% of 108 movements
Jun 202241.2% of 102 movements
Jul 202255.0% of 109 movements
Aug 202243.4% of 106 movements
Sep 202237.5% of 104 movements
Oct 202246.7% of 105 movements
Nov 202234.5% of 84 movements
Dec 202255.4% of 83 movements
Jan 202314.8% of 88 movements
Feb 202316.2% of 80 movements
Mar 202326.3% of 95 movements
Apr 202333.6% of 107 movements
May 202338.7% of 111 movements
Jun 202346.7% of 107 movements
Jul 202335.5% of 110 movements
Aug 202341.1% of 112 movements
Sep 202343.4% of 106 movements
Oct 202340.7% of 108 movements
Nov 202313.1% of 84 movements
Dec 202324.1% of 87 movements
Jan 202411.5% of 87 movements
Feb 20249.8% of 82 movements
Mar 202418.3% of 93 movements
Apr 202436.4% of 107 movements
May 202428.2% of 110 movements
Jun 202436.1% of 108 movements
Jul 202449.1% of 110 movements
Aug 202436.9% of 111 movements
Sep 202445.9% of 109 movements
Oct 202435.9% of 103 movements
Nov 202420.7% of 87 movements
Dec 202431.5% of 89 movements
Jan 202523.3% of 86 movements
Feb 202520.0% of 80 movements
Mar 202516.3% of 92 movements
Apr 202534.0% of 106 movements
May 202530.6% of 111 movements
Jun 202541.7% of 108 movements
Jul 202538.5% of 109 movements
Aug 202533.0% of 112 movements
Sep 202547.2% of 108 movements
Oct 202535.5% of 107 movements
Nov 202524.8% of 101 movements
Dec 202533.0% of 94 movements
Jan 202616.3% of 104 movements
Feb 202619.6% of 92 movements
Mar 202622.1% of 104 movements
Apr 202620.8% of 120 movements
May 202620.2% of 124 movements
Jun 202639.2% of 120 movements

What did the big disruptions actually do here?

Each named event below is shown against this route’s own baseline for the twelve months before it, and against how long the route took to get back to that baseline.

A month worse than baseline is not proof the named event caused it: the open data carry no delay-cause field at all. Some events sit near the edge of the archive, which limits how long a recovery can be traced.

EventDirectionDisruption that monthBaseline beforeReturn to baseline
Pandemic regime · Jun 2020Arrivalssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementsno complete baselinenot enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month
Pandemic regime · Jun 2020Departuressuppressed: fewer than twenty movementsno complete baselinenot enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month
Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022Arrivals55.0% of 109 movements15.7% across 844 flightsreturned after 6 months
Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022Departures43.0% of 107 movements11.0% across 845 flightsstill above it 8 months later
NATS system failure · Aug 2023Arrivals41.1% of 112 movements35.8% across 1,180 flightsreturned after 3 months
NATS system failure · Aug 2023Departures48.2% of 112 movements34.5% across 1,179 flightsreturned after 3 months
Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025Arrivals16.3% of 92 movements31.9% across 1,193 flightsreturned after 2 months
Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025Departures7.6% of 92 movements32.6% across 1,194 flightsreturned the next month
Definitions, denominators and limits

The baseline is the unweighted mean share over the twelve preceding calendar months. The return window is the following eight months, up to the end of the archive. Return means the first observed value at or below the baseline; it is not the duration of the disruption itself. If the event month is already below the baseline, counting still starts the month after. Gaps and suppressed cells are not treated as zeros or as recovery.

Which time of year has historically been hardest?

September has historically been the hardest month on this route: in a typical September, 40.4% of arrivals were disrupted, measured across 6 Septembers in the archive. January has been the calmest, at 13.2% across 7 Januarys.

Even September has ranged from 15.4% to 47.2% in different years, so this is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what will. Lower is better throughout.

Each cell is one calendar month of one year; the number is the share of that month’s arrivals that were disrupted. Darker means worse. A blank cell means no published data, not zero.

Seasonality: calendar month by year; share and nJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec201913.2% of 91 movements10.0% of 80 movements14.8% of 88 movements31.3% of 99 movements23.3% of 103 movements31.6% of 98 movements25.2% of 103 movements34.3% of 102 movements32.0% of 100 movements22.0% of 100 movements5.9% of 85 movements14.3% of 84 movements202012.4% of 89 movements20.7% of 82 movements18.8% of 69 movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementsno events in 44 movements †no events in 48 movements †4.8% of 42 movements †no events in 21 movements †suppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movements2021suppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementsno datano datano data3.2% of 31 movements †15.6% of 32 movements †11.8% of 51 movements17.9% of 56 movements3.9% of 77 movements10.6% of 85 movements20224.3% of 47 movements †17.2% of 64 movements10.0% of 90 movements23.8% of 101 movements29.6% of 108 movements41.2% of 102 movements55.0% of 109 movements43.4% of 106 movements37.5% of 104 movements46.7% of 105 movements34.5% of 84 movements55.4% of 83 movements202314.8% of 88 movements16.2% of 80 movements26.3% of 95 movements33.6% of 107 movements38.7% of 111 movements46.7% of 107 movements35.5% of 110 movements41.1% of 112 movements43.4% of 106 movements40.7% of 108 movements13.1% of 84 movements24.1% of 87 movements202411.5% of 87 movements9.8% of 82 movements18.3% of 93 movements36.4% of 107 movements28.2% of 110 movements36.1% of 108 movements49.1% of 110 movements36.9% of 111 movements45.9% of 109 movements35.9% of 103 movements20.7% of 87 movements31.5% of 89 movements202523.3% of 86 movements20.0% of 80 movements16.3% of 92 movements34.0% of 106 movements30.6% of 111 movements41.7% of 108 movements38.5% of 109 movements33.0% of 112 movements47.2% of 108 movements35.5% of 107 movements24.8% of 101 movements33.0% of 94 movements202616.3% of 104 movements19.6% of 92 movements22.1% of 104 movements20.8% of 120 movements20.2% of 124 movements39.2% of 120 movementsno datano datano datano datano datano data
Month-by-month table: median, observed range and sample
MonthMedianObserved rangeSample
Jan13.2%4.3–23.3%7 months, 595 flights
Feb16.2%9.8–20.0%7 months, 558 flights
Mar18.3%10.0–26.3%7 months, 651 flights
Apr31.3%20.8–36.4%7 months, 730 flights
May28.2%20.2–38.7%7 months, 761 flights
Jun39.2%27.8–46.7%7 months, 733 flights
Jul37.0%20.4–55.0%6 months, 634 flights
Aug35.6%9.7–43.4%6 months, 636 flights
Sep40.4%15.4–47.2%6 months, 618 flights
Oct35.7%14.0–46.7%6 months, 616 flights
Nov19.6%5.9–34.5%6 months, 527 flights
Dec30.7%14.3–55.4%6 months, 527 flights
Definitions, denominators and limits

The matrix shows the last eight calendar years, including an incomplete final year; the start of the archive is kept in the history above. Seasonal summaries use the whole available archive, excluding the pandemic regime 2020–2021; this is an observed range, not a forecast. Zero events, missing data and suppressed cells are marked separately. † marks a small sample, described but not ranked. For ranges the colour follows the upper bound.

Which airline has the better record here?

Only one carrier published enough flights here to report: Ryanair, 29.3% of 1,294 movements disrupted.

Figures cover arrivals, July 2025 to June 2026; lower is better in every column. Carriers with fewer than twenty published flights are suppressed rather than shown as zero. The page makes no ranking: the operations behind these shares are not matched for aircraft, time of day or season.

Observed disruption share by optionRyanair29.3% of 1,294 flights
Airline comparison table: operations, cancellations, three-hour delays and data quality
AirlineOperationsDisruptionCancellations>180 minData quality
Aer Lingussuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Air Hamburgsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
City Jetsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Ryanair1,29429.3% of 1,294 movements0.1% of 1,294 movements0.6% of 1,294 movementsdescriptive comparison
Titan Airwayssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Vistajet Maltasuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed

The noise check is a descriptive approximation assuming independent operations. Delay correlation and mix differences are not estimated; no ranking is derived.

Would another UK airport have been better?

Among UK airports flying to this city with enough flights to publish, LCY had the lowest disruption share at 15.8% of 1,704 movements and JER the highest at 44.4% of 99 movements. This route sits at 29.3% of 1,295 movements.

Each figure is arrivals into that UK airport, all carriers combined, over the same twelve months. It is a historical record, not a recommendation about where to fly from, and it says nothing about getting to or from each airport on the ground.

Observed disruption share by optionAbz ↔ Dublin29.4% of 732 flightsBhx ↔ Dublin24.2% of 3,869 flightsBrs ↔ Dublin26.6% of 2,114 flightsCwl ↔ Dublin24.9% of 357 flightsEdi ↔ Dublin28.3% of 4,022 flightsEma ↔ Dublin20.7% of 532 flightsExt ↔ Dublin22.1% of 281 flightsGla ↔ Dublin20.8% of 2,825 flights
Airport comparison table: operations, cancellations, three-hour delays and data quality
Other UK airport to the same cityOperationsDisruptionCancellations>180 minData quality
Abz ↔ Dublin73229.4% of 732 movements2.7% of 732 movements1.0% of 732 movementsdescriptive comparison
Bfs ↔ Dublinsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Bhd ↔ Dublinsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Bhx ↔ Dublin3,86924.2% of 3,869 movements1.3% of 3,869 movements0.5% of 3,869 movementsdescriptive comparison
Boh ↔ Dublinsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Brs ↔ Dublin2,11426.6% of 2,114 movements0.8% of 2,114 movements0.3% of 2,114 movementsdescriptive comparison
Cwl ↔ Dublin35724.9% of 357 movementsno events in 357 movementsno events in 357 movementsdescriptive comparison
Doncaster-Sheffield ↔ Dublinsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Durham-Tees-Valley ↔ Dublinsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Edi ↔ Dublin4,02228.3% of 4,022 movements1.1% of 4,022 movements0.4% of 4,022 movementsdescriptive comparison
Ema ↔ Dublin53220.7% of 532 movements0.2% of 532 movements0.6% of 532 movementsdescriptive comparison
Ext ↔ Dublin28122.1% of 281 movements0.7% of 281 movements0.4% of 281 movementsdescriptive comparison
Gla ↔ Dublin2,82520.8% of 2,825 movements0.8% of 2,825 movements0.4% of 2,825 movementsdescriptive comparison
Iom ↔ Dublin53325.9% of 533 movements2.4% of 533 movements0.4% of 533 movementsdescriptive comparison
Jer ↔ Dublin9944.4% of 99 movementsno events in 99 movements1.0% of 99 movementsdescriptive comparison
Lba ↔ Dublin1,84224.0% of 1,842 movements2.3% of 1,842 movements0.5% of 1,842 movementsdescriptive comparison
Lcy ↔ Dublin1,70415.8% of 1,704 movements1.8% of 1,704 movements0.2% of 1,704 movementsdescriptive comparison
Lgw ↔ Dublin3,04623.2% of 3,046 movements0.0% of 3,046 movements0.2% of 3,046 movementsdescriptive comparison
Lhr ↔ Dublin6,19524.3% of 6,195 movements1.0% of 6,195 movements0.2% of 6,195 movementsdescriptive comparison
Lpl ↔ Dublin2,38418.5% of 2,384 movements0.7% of 2,384 movements0.6% of 2,384 movementsdescriptive comparison
Man ↔ Dublin4,99425.7% of 4,994 movements0.8% of 4,994 movements0.3% of 4,994 movementsdescriptive comparison
Mme ↔ Dublinsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Ncl ↔ Dublin1,08820.9% of 1,088 movements0.3% of 1,088 movements0.6% of 1,088 movementsdescriptive comparison
Sen ↔ Dublinsuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed: fewer than twenty movementssuppressed
Sou ↔ Dublin89323.0% of 893 movements2.4% of 893 movements0.3% of 893 movementsdescriptive comparison
Stn ↔ Dublin3,02824.0% of 3,028 movementsno events in 3,028 movements0.4% of 3,028 movementsdescriptive comparison

Does the direction you are flying change anything?

Barely: arrivals into LTN ran 29.3% of 1,295 movements disrupted, departures 30.4% of 1,294 movements.

It matters legally as well as practically: a departure from the UK and an arrival into the UK on a UK or EU carrier fall under different conditions, and a departure delay does not establish a late arrival at your final destination.

Arrivals and departures side by side
DirectionDisruptionCancellationsOver three hours
Arrivals into LTN29.3% of 1,295 movements0.1% of 1,295 movements0.6% of 1,295 movements
Departures from LTN30.4% of 1,294 movementsno events in 1,294 movements0.6% of 1,294 movements
Definitions, denominators and limits

CAA conditions on delays and cancellations.

How many flights here crossed the three-hour mark?

The table below counts arrivals and departures that ran more than three hours late — the threshold that is one of the conditions for compensation — across the whole archive and within the last six years.

The pound figure beside each count is arithmetic, not money anyone received: it is the count multiplied by the maximum statutory amount for this distance band. Whether any of those flights actually qualified is not knowable from this data.

DirectionWindowFlights over three hoursArithmetic statutory ceiling
ArrivalsWhole archive · Jan 2018–Jun 202645 flights out of 8,33945 × £220 = £9,900
ArrivalsLast 72 months · Jul 2020–Jun 202640 flights out of 5,88340 × £220 = £8,800
DeparturesWhole archive · Jan 2018–Jun 202655 flights out of 8,33955 × £220 = £12,100
DeparturesLast 72 months · Jul 2020–Jun 202634 flights out of 5,88334 × £220 = £7,480
Definitions, denominators and limits

Full formula: the count is the sum of the two tail buckets across months, carriers and service types in one direction; the ceiling is that count multiplied by the maximum statutory amount for the distance band. The condition is: if every such delay had been the carrier's fault and a claim had been filed on every one of them.

This is conditional arithmetic over operations: passenger numbers, legal applicability and the number of claims are all unknown. For departures it is an arithmetic scenario only, because arrival at the final point is not observed. For long routes the maximum ceiling is used; any reduction in the payable amount is not calculated.

The archive window is counted from the last month of data, not from today: this is not a limitation check for an individual case. The CAA states six years for England and Wales and five for Scotland. CAA: time limits and how to complain. Information, not a legal service.

The facts about this route

Route reference table: codes, distance, frequency, archive span
FieldValue
UK airportLUTON · LTN
Final point / countryDUBLIN / IRISH REPUBLIC
Final point codesDUB / EIDW
Great-circle distance433 km
Maximum statutory amount for the band£220
Average operated arrivals per day3.55
Presence in the latest twelve-month windowoperations present in every month of the latest twelve-month window
First and last active monthJan 2018–Jun 2026
Months with operations in the archive95

origin_destination is the final point of the CAA service, not evidence of a nonstop connection. The distance joins the coordinates of the named airports; the actual track is unknown. Frequency describes published operations.

What this data cannot tell you

Delay cause is not published in the regulator's open data. Monthly aggregates describe a population, not a specific flight. Cells below twenty operations are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive only and not ranked. Arrivals and departures do not add up. Cancellations are short-notice only, by the CAA definition. A movement is not the same as a scheduled flight.

0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.

Data-quality counters for this route

Zero observed events does not mean zero risk. Operator coverage against the Summary file is not established in this record; comparisons are limited to the published population.

Unmatched records: 0; all recorded operations: 1,295; excluded by quarantine: 0.

Quick answers

How often is this route disrupted?

29.3% of 1,295 movements over July 2025 to June 2026. Arrivals into the UK airport; all published carriers.

How many flights are cancelled at short notice?

0.1% of 1,295 movements in the same window.

How many delays crossed three hours?

0.6% of 1,295 movements in the same window; these are observed movements, not a count of claims.

What does the delay distribution look like?

rare but severe. The class compares the tail with short delays across routes in the corpus.

What distance is used?

433 km, great-circle.

Can compensation entitlement be established here?

No. The cause and the circumstances of an individual flight are unknown. Official CAA conditions.

Why do some cells say "no data"?

That month is absent from the published series. Small cells carry a separate "suppressed" marker; a gap is never replaced by a zero.

How this was calculated

Dataset version, input hashes and reconstruction rules

Dataset version: 396da8dde2874f14; method route-record-v2.1.

Versioned register of every number and the entity map · Input hashes · Correction log · Reconstruction and formulas.

Reconstruction: integer counts inside the rounding bounds of shares of D, summing to M. Ambiguity is preserved as a range of feasible counts; non-convergence stays in quarantine. The map of codes and coordinates is pinned by hash alongside the data. Raw CSV files are not included in the published output.

Your trip has already gone wrong — what now?

The official route to complain

Contact the airline first, then the relevant ADR body or the CAA. The right to care is assessed separately from compensation; time limits and circumstances are checked case by case. CAA: how to complain.

Reconstruction and formulas

Open the versioned claim register

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