How often are these flights late or cancelled?
Air Transat
In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 34.8% of 1,001 movements arriving into the UK were disrupted — more than fifteen minutes late or cancelled at short notice.
Put the other way round, 65.2% of 1,001 movements met the fifteen-minute convention. These are historical observations, not a forecast.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
The four numbers at a glance
34.8% of 1,001 movements were disrupted over July 2025 to June 2026.
Average delay covers delayed movements only. Its range reflects rounded source means and the unknown count of exactly punctual movements.
| Disruption | Short-notice cancellations | Delay among delayed movements | Over three hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34.8% of 1,001 movements | 0.5% of 1,001 movements | 27.7–51.0 minutes; delayed denominator 343–597 | 0.5% of 1,001 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
When late, how late?
0.5% of 1,001 movements passed the three-hour mark.
The ladder shows how many movements crossed each threshold. Cancellations are separate: 0.5% of 1,001 movements.
| Delay | Share and sample | One event per movements |
|---|---|---|
| More than 15 minutes | 34.3% of 1,001 movements | 2.9 |
| More than 30 minutes | 18.2% of 1,001 movements | 5.5 |
| More than 60 minutes | 5.8% of 1,001 movements | 17.3 |
| More than 120 minutes | 1.8% of 1,001 movements | 55.6 |
| More than 180 minutes | 0.5% of 1,001 movements | 200.2 |
| More than 360 minutes | no events in 1,001 movements | No observed events; this is not zero risk. |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Slightly late or occasionally a disaster?
1.8% of 1,001 movements passed two hours.
The histogram shows the published delay bands. Bucket shares use all reported operations, including unmatched records; cancellations are reported separately.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Better or worse since the start of the archive?
Best month: Oct 2019, 14.3% of 77 movements. Worst month: Dec 2022, 85.0% of 60 movements.
The line traces every month. Lower disruption is better; gaps are never zeros. Pandemic readings describe a different operating regime.
Every monthly observation
| Month | Disruption on arrivals |
|---|---|
| Jan 2018 | 42.9% of 49 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Feb 2018 | 35.0% of 40 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Mar 2018 | 58.5% of 53 movements |
| Apr 2018 | 26.2% of 61 movements |
| May 2018 | 29.1% of 110 movements |
| Jun 2018 | 43.1% of 144 movements |
| Jul 2018 | 50.0% of 158 movements |
| Aug 2018 | 41.6% of 161 movements |
| Sep 2018 | 28.7% of 136 movements |
| Oct 2018 | 18.1% of 83 movements |
| Nov 2018 | 26.7% of 45 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Dec 2018 | 32.6% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jan 2019 | 52.2% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Feb 2019 | 70.0% of 40 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Mar 2019 | 16.7% of 48 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Apr 2019 | 34.5% of 55 movements |
| May 2019 | 42.0% of 100 movements |
| Jun 2019 | 53.7% of 136 movements |
| Jul 2019 | 41.0% of 156 movements |
| Aug 2019 | 30.8% of 156 movements |
| Sep 2019 | 38.0% of 129 movements |
| Oct 2019 | 14.3% of 77 movements |
| Nov 2019 | 27.7% of 47 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Dec 2019 | 54.2% of 48 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jan 2020 | 40.4% of 47 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Feb 2020 | 35.7% of 42 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Mar 2020 | 17.9% of 39 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Apr 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| May 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jun 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jul 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Aug 2020 | 7.4% of 27 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Sep 2020 | no events in 26 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Oct 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Nov 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Dec 2020 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jan 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Feb 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Mar 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Apr 2021 | no data |
| May 2021 | no data |
| Jun 2021 | no data |
| Jul 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Aug 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Sep 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Oct 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Nov 2021 | 28.6% of 21 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Dec 2021 | 36.7% of 30 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jan 2022 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Feb 2022 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Mar 2022 | 13.9% of 36 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Apr 2022 | 50.0% of 44 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| May 2022 | 44.7% of 85 movements |
| Jun 2022 | 59.0% of 105 movements |
| Jul 2022 | 48.5% of 132 movements |
| Aug 2022 | 42.3% of 137 movements |
| Sep 2022 | 50.4% of 127 movements |
| Oct 2022 | 31.8% of 85 movements |
| Nov 2022 | 23.8% of 63 movements |
| Dec 2022 | 85.0% of 60 movements |
| Jan 2023 | 41.1% of 56 movements |
| Feb 2023 | 60.0% of 50 movements |
| Mar 2023 | 75.9% of 58 movements |
| Apr 2023 | 55.4% of 56 movements |
| May 2023 | 43.0% of 79 movements |
| Jun 2023 | 76.4% of 123 movements |
| Jul 2023 | 58.3% of 156 movements |
| Aug 2023 | 45.6% of 160 movements |
| Sep 2023 | 32.1% of 140 movements |
| Oct 2023 | 29.3% of 92 movements |
| Nov 2023 | 17.1% of 70 movements |
| Dec 2023 | 28.6% of 70 movements |
| Jan 2024 | 36.1% of 61 movements |
| Feb 2024 | 26.5% of 49 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Mar 2024 | 18.4% of 49 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Apr 2024 | 30.4% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| May 2024 | 37.4% of 99 movements |
| Jun 2024 | 39.4% of 127 movements |
| Jul 2024 | 35.4% of 158 movements |
| Aug 2024 | 28.3% of 159 movements |
| Sep 2024 | 39.6% of 139 movements |
| Oct 2024 | 28.9% of 90 movements |
| Nov 2024 | 7.1% of 42 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Dec 2024 | 54.2% of 48 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jan 2025 | 51.2% of 43 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Feb 2025 | 38.7% of 31 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Mar 2025 | 22.6% of 31 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Apr 2025 | 12.8% of 39 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| May 2025 | 37.2% of 94 movements |
| Jun 2025 | 25.2% of 127 movements |
| Jul 2025 | 32.5% of 154 movements |
| Aug 2025 | 30.1% of 156 movements |
| Sep 2025 | 16.0% of 125 movements |
| Oct 2025 | 35.1% of 74 movements |
| Nov 2025 | 38.6% of 44 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Dec 2025 | 39.1% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jan 2026 | 59.0% of 39 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Feb 2026 | 63.9% of 36 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Mar 2026 | 11.6% of 43 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Apr 2026 | 34.1% of 44 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| May 2026 | 41.5% of 106 movements |
| Jun 2026 | 44.8% of 134 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What did the big disruptions do here?
Each event is compared with the twelve preceding calendar months and the first later return to baseline.
A worse month is not proof the named event caused it. The open data carry no delay-cause field. Recovery is observed for at most eight subsequent months.
| Event | Direction | Disruption that month | Baseline before | Return to baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Arrivals | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Departures | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Arrivals | 48.5% of 132 movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Departures | 58.3% of 132 movements | no complete baseline | not enough data: needs a complete baseline and a publishable event month |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Arrivals | 45.6% of 160 movements | 53.6% across 1,050 flights | returned the next month |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Departures | 41.9% of 160 movements | 41.8% across 1,050 flights | returned the next month |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Arrivals | 22.6% of 31 movements — small sample, not ranked | 34.1% across 1,031 flights | returned the next month |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Departures | 29.0% of 31 movements — small sample, not ranked | 23.9% across 1,033 flights | returned after 2 months |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which time of year has been hardest?
Highest median: Feb, 49.4% across 6 months. Lowest median: Mar, 18.4% across 7 months.
Even the same calendar month differs across years. This is a record, not a forecast; pandemic years are excluded from the summaries.
Each cell is one calendar month of one year; the number is the share of that month’s arrivals that were disrupted. Darker means worse. A blank cell means no published data, not zero.
Month-by-month table: median, observed range and sample
| Month | Median | Observed range | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 47.0% | 36.1–59.0% | 6 months, 294 flights |
| Feb | 49.4% | 26.5–70.0% | 6 months, 246 flights |
| Mar | 18.4% | 11.6–75.9% | 7 months, 318 flights |
| Apr | 34.1% | 12.8–55.4% | 7 months, 345 flights |
| May | 41.5% | 29.1–44.7% | 7 months, 673 flights |
| Jun | 44.8% | 25.2–76.4% | 7 months, 896 flights |
| Jul | 44.8% | 32.5–58.3% | 6 months, 914 flights |
| Aug | 36.2% | 28.3–45.6% | 6 months, 929 flights |
| Sep | 35.1% | 16.0–50.4% | 6 months, 796 flights |
| Oct | 29.1% | 14.3–35.1% | 6 months, 501 flights |
| Nov | 25.2% | 7.1–38.6% | 6 months, 311 flights |
| Dec | 46.6% | 28.6–85.0% | 6 months, 318 flights |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which routes have the best and worst record?
Lowest disruption: LGW ↔ MONTREAL-DORVAL, 19.7% of 147 movements. Highest disruption: LGW ↔ TORONTO, 45.2% of 447 movements.
The airline table uses this carrier on each route; airport and country tables combine carriers. Each figure is arrivals into its UK airport. Only sufficiently large exact samples enter the ordered comparison.
All route comparisons and sample flags
| Route | Disruption | Cancellations | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| LGW ↔ MONTREAL-DORVAL | 19.7% of 147 movements | no events in 147 movements | descriptive comparison |
| GLA ↔ TORONTO | 23.8% of 189 movements | no events in 189 movements | descriptive comparison |
| MAN ↔ TORONTO | 34.0% of 200 movements | 1.0% of 200 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LGW ↔ TORONTO | 45.2% of 447 movements | 0.7% of 447 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which UK airports appear in this record?
3 published groups have enough arrivals to describe.
These operations are not matched for season, aircraft or time of day. The table makes no causal comparison.
| UK airport | Disruption | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|
| Glasgow | 23.8% of 189 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Gatwick | 38.4% of 612 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Manchester | 34.0% of 200 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Arrivals vs departures
34.8% of 1,001 movements arrivals were disrupted, against 25.8% of 1,002 movements departures.
The directions have separate denominators. A departure delay does not establish late arrival at the final destination; legal conditions differ by direction and carrier.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Movements past the three-hour mark
0.5% of 1,001 movements were more than three hours late over July 2025 to June 2026.
Cancellation is counted separately and is not a three-hour delay. Monthly counts cannot establish a passenger claim.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Facts about this record
Air Transat appears from Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 with 6,850 arrivals.
The bounds describe the published record, not every commercial service. Final point is not necessarily a nonstop destination.
Archive route pairs: 34.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What this data cannot tell you
Delay cause, individual passenger experience, commercial decisions and future performance are not established here.
Also absent are aircraft type, within-month time-of-day splits and cancellations made ahead of the short-notice reporting window.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Quick answers
These answers use the same populations and window as the tables above.
Every percentage retains its denominator.
How disrupted are these arrivals?
34.8% of 1,001 movements over July 2025 to June 2026.
How often are they cancelled?
0.5% of 1,001 movements at short notice.
How late is late?
27.7–51.0 minutes; delayed denominator 343–597
Are services improving?
The monthly line records past changes; it is not a forecast or a causal comparison.
Which routes are compared?
The route table uses separately identified UK airport and final-point pairs, with small samples flagged.
Does this cover my flight?
Only published aggregate movements; the circumstances of any individual flight are unknown.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
How this was calculated
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
Integer bucket counts are recovered from rounding intervals over D=M+C+U with their sum constrained to M. Ambiguous counts remain ranges; failed reconciliation is quarantined.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Your trip has already gone wrong
The monthly line and events table show whether your month was typical or unusual in the published record.
Nothing here decides an individual case or what a passenger may be owed.
CAA: the official route to complainDefinitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.