How often are these flights late or cancelled?
Bulgaria
In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 31.1% of 4,600 movements arriving into the UK were disrupted — more than fifteen minutes late or cancelled at short notice.
Put the other way round, 68.9% of 4,600 movements met the fifteen-minute convention. These are historical observations, not a forecast.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
The four numbers at a glance
31.1% of 4,600 movements were disrupted over July 2025 to June 2026.
Average delay covers delayed movements only. Its range reflects rounded source means and the unknown count of exactly punctual movements.
| Disruption | Short-notice cancellations | Delay among delayed movements | Over three hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31.1% of 4,600 movements | 0.3% of 4,600 movements | 29.3–58.5 minutes; delayed denominator 1,418–2,673 | 0.6% of 4,600 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
When late, how late?
0.6% of 4,600 movements passed the three-hour mark.
The ladder shows how many movements crossed each threshold. Cancellations are separate: 0.3% of 4,600 movements.
| Delay | Share and sample | One event per movements |
|---|---|---|
| More than 15 minutes | 30.8% of 4,600 movements | 3.2 |
| More than 30 minutes | 18.0% of 4,600 movements | 5.6 |
| More than 60 minutes | 6.8% of 4,600 movements | 14.7 |
| More than 120 minutes | 2.0% of 4,600 movements | 50.0 |
| More than 180 minutes | 0.6% of 4,600 movements | 176.9 |
| More than 360 minutes | 0.2% of 4,600 movements | 657.1 |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Slightly late or occasionally a disaster?
2.0% of 4,600 movements passed two hours.
The histogram shows the published delay bands. Bucket shares use all reported operations, including unmatched records; cancellations are reported separately.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Better or worse since the start of the archive?
Best month: Nov 2019, 6.3% of 316 movements. Worst month: Jun 2022, 65.3% of 533 movements.
The line traces every month. Lower disruption is better; gaps are never zeros. Pandemic readings describe a different operating regime.
Every monthly observation
| Month | Disruption on arrivals |
|---|---|
| Jan 2018 | 26.7% of 393 movements |
| Feb 2018 | 19.7% of 356 movements |
| Mar 2018 | 18.3% of 383 movements |
| Apr 2018 | 18.4% of 331 movements |
| May 2018 | 30.5% of 403 movements |
| Jun 2018 | 34.3% of 624 movements |
| Jul 2018 | 35.0% of 662 movements |
| Aug 2018 | 29.8% of 654 movements |
| Sep 2018 | 26.8% of 568 movements |
| Oct 2018 | 18.0% of 323 movements |
| Nov 2018 | 9.7% of 289 movements |
| Dec 2018 | 31.7% of 360 movements |
| Jan 2019 | 18.9% of 412 movements |
| Feb 2019 | 19.7% of 376 movements |
| Mar 2019 | 18.8% of 404 movements |
| Apr 2019 | 13.6% of 308 movements |
| May 2019 | 22.5% of 449 movements |
| Jun 2019 | 42.1% of 630 movements |
| Jul 2019 | 42.2% of 708 movements |
| Aug 2019 | 39.2% of 732 movements |
| Sep 2019 | 35.8% of 612 movements |
| Oct 2019 | 26.7% of 330 movements |
| Nov 2019 | 6.3% of 316 movements |
| Dec 2019 | 22.0% of 410 movements |
| Jan 2020 | 10.5% of 458 movements |
| Feb 2020 | 38.0% of 447 movements |
| Mar 2020 | 18.4% of 348 movements |
| Apr 2020 | 34.1% of 82 movements |
| May 2020 | 13.4% of 134 movements |
| Jun 2020 | 6.5% of 168 movements |
| Jul 2020 | 7.9% of 265 movements |
| Aug 2020 | 16.5% of 303 movements |
| Sep 2020 | 7.2% of 292 movements |
| Oct 2020 | 7.1% of 241 movements |
| Nov 2020 | 11.9% of 109 movements |
| Dec 2020 | 34.0% of 215 movements |
| Jan 2021 | 23.9% of 142 movements |
| Feb 2021 | 23.6% of 89 movements |
| Mar 2021 | 16.9% of 89 movements |
| Apr 2021 | 17.4% of 121 movements |
| May 2021 | 19.4% of 124 movements |
| Jun 2021 | 14.1% of 185 movements |
| Jul 2021 | 22.1% of 271 movements |
| Aug 2021 | 27.0% of 363 movements |
| Sep 2021 | 12.3% of 341 movements |
| Oct 2021 | 15.3% of 268 movements |
| Nov 2021 | 8.2% of 207 movements |
| Dec 2021 | 25.7% of 307 movements |
| Jan 2022 | 26.4% of 307 movements |
| Feb 2022 | 31.9% of 301 movements |
| Mar 2022 | 19.0% of 342 movements |
| Apr 2022 | 45.0% of 360 movements |
| May 2022 | 52.7% of 440 movements |
| Jun 2022 | 65.3% of 533 movements |
| Jul 2022 | 62.1% of 642 movements |
| Aug 2022 | 51.6% of 632 movements |
| Sep 2022 | 57.1% of 574 movements |
| Oct 2022 | 51.0% of 394 movements |
| Nov 2022 | 12.6% of 270 movements |
| Dec 2022 | 42.7% of 363 movements |
| Jan 2023 | 31.3% of 380 movements |
| Feb 2023 | 27.5% of 367 movements |
| Mar 2023 | 25.3% of 399 movements |
| Apr 2023 | 28.0% of 357 movements |
| May 2023 | 30.6% of 418 movements |
| Jun 2023 | 45.4% of 522 movements |
| Jul 2023 | 60.5% of 597 movements |
| Aug 2023 | 46.6% of 624 movements |
| Sep 2023 | 46.0% of 556 movements |
| Oct 2023 | 40.4% of 356 movements |
| Nov 2023 | 32.7% of 327 movements |
| Dec 2023 | 47.2% of 415 movements |
| Jan 2024 | 38.5% of 429 movements |
| Feb 2024 | 23.8% of 416 movements |
| Mar 2024 | 17.3% of 444 movements |
| Apr 2024 | 20.9% of 321 movements |
| May 2024 | 34.4% of 427 movements |
| Jun 2024 | 52.6% of 527 movements |
| Jul 2024 | 60.5% of 577 movements |
| Aug 2024 | 45.7% of 597 movements |
| Sep 2024 | 47.4% of 511 movements |
| Oct 2024 | 34.7% of 349 movements |
| Nov 2024 | 25.4% of 272 movements |
| Dec 2024 | 31.3% of 377 movements |
| Jan 2025 | 39.6% of 374 movements |
| Feb 2025 | 22.1% of 390 movements |
| Mar 2025 | 14.8% of 393 movements |
| Apr 2025 | 24.0% of 296 movements |
| May 2025 | 30.4% of 404 movements |
| Jun 2025 | 37.6% of 444 movements |
| Jul 2025 | 39.9% of 486 movements |
| Aug 2025 | 36.0% of 491 movements |
| Sep 2025 | 46.8% of 470 movements |
| Oct 2025 | 32.5% of 335 movements |
| Nov 2025 | 22.6% of 266 movements |
| Dec 2025 | 19.4% of 330 movements |
| Jan 2026 | 31.6% of 374 movements |
| Feb 2026 | 26.4% of 356 movements |
| Mar 2026 | 10.9% of 367 movements |
| Apr 2026 | 22.2% of 266 movements |
| May 2026 | 25.2% of 401 movements |
| Jun 2026 | 42.4% of 458 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What did the big disruptions do here?
Each event is compared with the twelve preceding calendar months and the first later return to baseline.
A worse month is not proof the named event caused it. The open data carry no delay-cause field. Recovery is observed for at most eight subsequent months.
| Event | Direction | Disruption that month | Baseline before | Return to baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Arrivals | 6.5% of 168 movements | 27.4% across 5,207 flights | returned the next month |
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Departures | 7.7% of 169 movements | 26.5% across 5,159 flights | returned the next month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Arrivals | 62.1% of 642 movements | 29.3% across 4,040 flights | returned after 4 months |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Departures | 66.5% of 651 movements | 30.3% across 4,058 flights | returned after 4 months |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Arrivals | 46.6% of 624 movements | 38.6% across 5,273 flights | returned after 3 months |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Departures | 52.1% of 620 movements | 43.4% across 5,265 flights | returned after 2 months |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Arrivals | 14.8% of 393 movements | 36.0% across 5,166 flights | returned the next month |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Departures | 14.5% of 387 movements | 35.5% across 5,162 flights | returned the next month |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which time of year has been hardest?
Highest median: Jul, 51.4% across 6 months. Lowest median: Nov, 17.6% across 6 months.
Even the same calendar month differs across years. This is a record, not a forecast; pandemic years are excluded from the summaries.
Each cell is one calendar month of one year; the number is the share of that month’s arrivals that were disrupted. Darker means worse. A blank cell means no published data, not zero.
Month-by-month table: median, observed range and sample
| Month | Median | Observed range | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 31.3% | 18.9–39.6% | 7 months, 2,669 flights |
| Feb | 23.8% | 19.7–31.9% | 7 months, 2,562 flights |
| Mar | 18.3% | 10.9–25.3% | 7 months, 2,732 flights |
| Apr | 22.2% | 13.6–45.0% | 7 months, 2,239 flights |
| May | 30.5% | 22.5–52.7% | 7 months, 2,942 flights |
| Jun | 42.4% | 34.3–65.3% | 7 months, 3,738 flights |
| Jul | 51.4% | 35.0–62.1% | 6 months, 3,672 flights |
| Aug | 42.5% | 29.8–51.6% | 6 months, 3,730 flights |
| Sep | 46.4% | 26.8–57.1% | 6 months, 3,291 flights |
| Oct | 33.6% | 18.0–51.0% | 6 months, 2,087 flights |
| Nov | 17.6% | 6.3–32.7% | 6 months, 1,740 flights |
| Dec | 31.5% | 19.4–47.2% | 6 months, 2,255 flights |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which routes have the best and worst record?
Lowest disruption: LGW ↔ VARNA, 13.0% of 77 movements. Highest disruption: LBA ↔ BURGAS, 81.5% of 65 movements.
The airline table uses this carrier on each route; airport and country tables combine carriers. Each figure is arrivals into its UK airport. Only sufficiently large exact samples enter the ordered comparison.
All route comparisons and sample flags
| Route | Disruption | Cancellations | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| LGW ↔ VARNA | 13.0% of 77 movements | 1.3% of 77 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LGW ↔ SOFIA | 15.4% of 130 movements | 1.5% of 130 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LTN ↔ PLOVDIV | 16.1% of 180 movements | no events in 180 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LHR ↔ SOFIA | 19.1% of 413 movements | 0.2% of 413 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Stansted ↔ Sofia | 21.4% of 903 movements | 0.1% of 903 movements | descriptive comparison |
| NCL ↔ BURGAS | 22.6% of 84 movements | no events in 84 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Luton ↔ Sofia | 22.9% of 576 movements | 0.2% of 576 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LTN ↔ VARNA | 23.2% of 263 movements | 0.8% of 263 movements | descriptive comparison |
| STN ↔ PLOVDIV | 25.6% of 211 movements | 0.9% of 211 movements | descriptive comparison |
| BRS ↔ SOFIA | 37.3% of 161 movements | no events in 161 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LPL ↔ SOFIA | 39.5% of 185 movements | no events in 185 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LTN ↔ BURGAS | 40.6% of 165 movements | no events in 165 movements | descriptive comparison |
| BRS ↔ BURGAS | 48.7% of 76 movements | no events in 76 movements | descriptive comparison |
| BHX ↔ SOFIA | 49.7% of 163 movements | no events in 163 movements | descriptive comparison |
| EDI ↔ SOFIA | 51.1% of 135 movements | no events in 135 movements | descriptive comparison |
| BHX ↔ BURGAS | 52.3% of 109 movements | no events in 109 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LGW ↔ BURGAS | 54.7% of 95 movements | 1.1% of 95 movements | descriptive comparison |
| MAN ↔ BURGAS | 55.6% of 216 movements | 0.5% of 216 movements | descriptive comparison |
| LBA ↔ BURGAS | 81.5% of 65 movements | no events in 65 movements | descriptive comparison |
| CWL ↔ BURGAS | 10.8% of 37 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 37 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| EDI ↔ BURGAS | 70.0% of 40 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 40 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| EMA ↔ BURGAS | 65.1% of 43 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 43 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| GLA ↔ BURGAS | 23.3% of 43 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 43 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| LPL ↔ BURGAS | 69.6% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 46 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| MAN ↔ PLOVDIV | 44.7% of 38 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 38 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| MAN ↔ SOFIA | 40.9% of 44 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 44 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| STN ↔ BURGAS | 10.9% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 46 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which UK airports appear in this record?
15 published groups have enough arrivals to describe.
These operations are not matched for season, aircraft or time of day. The table makes no causal comparison.
| UK airport | Disruption | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|
| Belfast International | 48.3% of 29 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| Birmingham | 49.7% of 288 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Bristol | 40.9% of 237 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Cardiff Wales | 13.2% of 38 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| Edinburgh | 55.4% of 175 movements | descriptive comparison |
| East Midlands International | 65.1% of 43 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| Glasgow | 23.3% of 43 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| Leeds Bradford | 81.5% of 65 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Gatwick | 27.2% of 302 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Heathrow | 19.1% of 413 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Liverpool (John Lennon) | 45.5% of 231 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Luton | 24.4% of 1,184 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Manchester | 52.0% of 298 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Newcastle | 22.3% of 94 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Stansted | 21.7% of 1,160 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Arrivals vs departures
31.1% of 4,600 movements arrivals were disrupted, against 30.4% of 4,588 movements departures.
The directions have separate denominators. A departure delay does not establish late arrival at the final destination; legal conditions differ by direction and carrier.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Movements past the three-hour mark
0.6% of 4,600 movements were more than three hours late over July 2025 to June 2026.
Cancellation is counted separately and is not a three-hour delay. Monthly counts cannot establish a passenger claim.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Facts about this record
Bulgaria appears from Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 with 39,226 arrivals.
The bounds describe the published record, not every commercial service. Final point is not necessarily a nonstop destination.
Archive route pairs: 54.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What this data cannot tell you
Delay cause, individual passenger experience, commercial decisions and future performance are not established here.
Also absent are aircraft type, within-month time-of-day splits and cancellations made ahead of the short-notice reporting window.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Quick answers
These answers use the same populations and window as the tables above.
Every percentage retains its denominator.
How disrupted are these arrivals?
31.1% of 4,600 movements over July 2025 to June 2026.
How often are they cancelled?
0.3% of 4,600 movements at short notice.
How late is late?
29.3–58.5 minutes; delayed denominator 1,418–2,673
Are services improving?
The monthly line records past changes; it is not a forecast or a causal comparison.
Which routes are compared?
The route table uses separately identified UK airport and final-point pairs, with small samples flagged.
Does this cover my flight?
Only published aggregate movements; the circumstances of any individual flight are unknown.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
How this was calculated
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
Integer bucket counts are recovered from rounding intervals over D=M+C+U with their sum constrained to M. Ambiguous counts remain ranges; failed reconciliation is quarantined.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Your trip has already gone wrong
The monthly line and events table show whether your month was typical or unusual in the published record.
Nothing here decides an individual case or what a passenger may be owed.
CAA: the official route to complainDefinitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.