How often are these flights late or cancelled?
Aurigny Air Services
In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 25.6% of 5,891 movements arriving into the UK were disrupted — more than fifteen minutes late or cancelled at short notice.
Put the other way round, 74.4% of 5,891 movements met the fifteen-minute convention. These are historical observations, not a forecast.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
The four numbers at a glance
25.6% of 5,891 movements were disrupted over July 2025 to June 2026.
Average delay covers delayed movements only. Its range reflects rounded source means and the unknown count of exactly punctual movements.
| Disruption | Short-notice cancellations | Delay among delayed movements | Over three hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.6% of 5,891 movements | 4.7% of 5,891 movements | 32.0–71.9 minutes; delayed denominator 1,234–2,600 | 1.0% of 5,891 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
When late, how late?
1.0% of 5,891 movements passed the three-hour mark.
The ladder shows how many movements crossed each threshold. Cancellations are separate: 4.7% of 5,891 movements.
| Delay | Share and sample | One event per movements |
|---|---|---|
| More than 15 minutes | 20.9% of 5,891 movements | 4.8 |
| More than 30 minutes | 13.3% of 5,891 movements | 7.5 |
| More than 60 minutes | 6.6% of 5,891 movements | 15.3 |
| More than 120 minutes | 2.9% of 5,891 movements | 34.2 |
| More than 180 minutes | 1.0% of 5,891 movements | 96.6 |
| More than 360 minutes | 0.1% of 5,891 movements | 841.6 |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Slightly late or occasionally a disaster?
2.9% of 5,891 movements passed two hours.
The histogram shows the published delay bands. Bucket shares use all reported operations, including unmatched records; cancellations are reported separately.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Better or worse since the start of the archive?
Best month: Oct 2020, 3.1% of 64 movements. Worst month: Dec 2024, 51.0% of 482 movements.
The line traces every month. Lower disruption is better; gaps are never zeros. Pandemic readings describe a different operating regime.
Every monthly observation
| Month | Disruption on arrivals |
|---|---|
| Jan 2018 | 19.2% of 308 movements |
| Feb 2018 | 31.3% of 326 movements |
| Mar 2018 | 25.4% of 389 movements |
| Apr 2018 | 27.6% of 464 movements |
| May 2018 | 22.7% of 436 movements |
| Jun 2018 | 22.1% of 420 movements |
| Jul 2018 | 23.9% of 452 movements |
| Aug 2018 | 19.6% of 494 movements |
| Sep 2018 | 11.0% of 391 movements |
| Oct 2018 | 14.9% of 363 movements |
| Nov 2018 | 22.3% of 332 movements |
| Dec 2018 | 25.7% of 374 movements |
| Jan 2019 | 18.9% of 317 movements |
| Feb 2019 | 21.1% of 323 movements |
| Mar 2019 | 17.2% of 367 movements |
| Apr 2019 | 11.6% of 370 movements |
| May 2019 | 16.1% of 436 movements |
| Jun 2019 | 21.3% of 507 movements |
| Jul 2019 | 24.7% of 558 movements |
| Aug 2019 | 27.9% of 594 movements |
| Sep 2019 | 26.7% of 517 movements |
| Oct 2019 | 16.3% of 472 movements |
| Nov 2019 | 10.3% of 448 movements |
| Dec 2019 | 21.4% of 434 movements |
| Jan 2020 | 22.0% of 423 movements |
| Feb 2020 | 21.6% of 412 movements |
| Mar 2020 | 21.6% of 222 movements |
| Apr 2020 | 21.2% of 33 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| May 2020 | 4.8% of 21 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jun 2020 | 20.0% of 25 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jul 2020 | 12.9% of 31 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Aug 2020 | 19.6% of 56 movements |
| Sep 2020 | 20.3% of 59 movements |
| Oct 2020 | 3.1% of 64 movements |
| Nov 2020 | 2.6% of 39 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Dec 2020 | 12.5% of 48 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jan 2021 | 10.0% of 30 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Feb 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Mar 2021 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Apr 2021 | 4.5% of 22 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| May 2021 | 10.9% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jun 2021 | 14.1% of 85 movements |
| Jul 2021 | 14.9% of 281 movements |
| Aug 2021 | 12.7% of 306 movements |
| Sep 2021 | 11.2% of 320 movements |
| Oct 2021 | 16.3% of 349 movements |
| Nov 2021 | 8.1% of 309 movements |
| Dec 2021 | 16.0% of 318 movements |
| Jan 2022 | 12.2% of 303 movements |
| Feb 2022 | 24.0% of 267 movements |
| Mar 2022 | 10.0% of 311 movements |
| Apr 2022 | 16.3% of 387 movements |
| May 2022 | 12.1% of 420 movements |
| Jun 2022 | 17.7% of 419 movements |
| Jul 2022 | 22.0% of 437 movements |
| Aug 2022 | 26.9% of 438 movements |
| Sep 2022 | 23.9% of 415 movements |
| Oct 2022 | 19.2% of 426 movements |
| Nov 2022 | 14.3% of 398 movements |
| Dec 2022 | 32.0% of 384 movements |
| Jan 2023 | 18.0% of 378 movements |
| Feb 2023 | 16.6% of 361 movements |
| Mar 2023 | 21.8% of 409 movements |
| Apr 2023 | 16.0% of 405 movements |
| May 2023 | 17.2% of 419 movements |
| Jun 2023 | 26.8% of 421 movements |
| Jul 2023 | 28.0% of 447 movements |
| Aug 2023 | 34.2% of 448 movements |
| Sep 2023 | 29.9% of 412 movements |
| Oct 2023 | 21.5% of 409 movements |
| Nov 2023 | 16.7% of 390 movements |
| Dec 2023 | 43.9% of 394 movements |
| Jan 2024 | 21.1% of 379 movements |
| Feb 2024 | 38.5% of 403 movements |
| Mar 2024 | 30.1% of 428 movements |
| Apr 2024 | 20.2% of 485 movements |
| May 2024 | 35.2% of 511 movements |
| Jun 2024 | 33.7% of 484 movements |
| Jul 2024 | 33.4% of 527 movements |
| Aug 2024 | 47.0% of 525 movements |
| Sep 2024 | 45.1% of 505 movements |
| Oct 2024 | 22.6% of 504 movements |
| Nov 2024 | 31.8% of 468 movements |
| Dec 2024 | 51.0% of 482 movements |
| Jan 2025 | 31.8% of 421 movements |
| Feb 2025 | 16.3% of 405 movements |
| Mar 2025 | 19.3% of 472 movements |
| Apr 2025 | 18.0% of 451 movements |
| May 2025 | 24.4% of 471 movements |
| Jun 2025 | 23.5% of 459 movements |
| Jul 2025 | 28.7% of 488 movements |
| Aug 2025 | 23.3% of 480 movements |
| Sep 2025 | 23.9% of 468 movements |
| Oct 2025 | 18.4% of 472 movements |
| Nov 2025 | 14.7% of 442 movements |
| Dec 2025 | 33.1% of 510 movements |
| Jan 2026 | 32.4% of 451 movements |
| Feb 2026 | 32.6% of 432 movements |
| Mar 2026 | 20.5% of 512 movements |
| Apr 2026 | 9.9% of 527 movements |
| May 2026 | 26.4% of 546 movements |
| Jun 2026 | 42.3% of 563 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What did the big disruptions do here?
Each event is compared with the twelve preceding calendar months and the first later return to baseline.
A worse month is not proof the named event caused it. The open data carry no delay-cause field. Recovery is observed for at most eight subsequent months.
| Event | Direction | Disruption that month | Baseline before | Return to baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Arrivals | 20.0% of 25 movements — small sample, not ranked | 20.0% across 4,641 flights | returned the next month |
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Departures | 64.0% of 25 movements — small sample, not ranked | 26.0% across 4,652 flights | returned after 4 months |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Arrivals | 22.0% of 437 movements | 14.3% across 3,990 flights | still above it 8 months later |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Departures | 35.2% of 438 movements | 20.5% across 3,999 flights | returned after 4 months |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Arrivals | 34.2% of 448 movements | 21.7% across 4,901 flights | returned after 2 months |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Departures | 47.2% of 447 movements | 29.1% across 4,917 flights | returned after 2 months |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Arrivals | 19.3% of 472 movements | 33.2% across 5,745 flights | returned the next month |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Departures | 21.6% of 473 movements | 41.2% across 5,782 flights | returned the next month |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which time of year has been hardest?
Highest median: Dec, 32.6% across 6 months. Lowest median: Nov, 15.7% across 6 months.
Even the same calendar month differs across years. This is a record, not a forecast; pandemic years are excluded from the summaries.
Each cell is one calendar month of one year; the number is the share of that month’s arrivals that were disrupted. Darker means worse. A blank cell means no published data, not zero.
Month-by-month table: median, observed range and sample
| Month | Median | Observed range | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 19.2% | 12.2–32.4% | 7 months, 2,557 flights |
| Feb | 24.0% | 16.3–38.5% | 7 months, 2,517 flights |
| Mar | 20.5% | 10.0–30.1% | 7 months, 2,888 flights |
| Apr | 16.3% | 9.9–27.6% | 7 months, 3,089 flights |
| May | 22.7% | 12.1–35.2% | 7 months, 3,239 flights |
| Jun | 23.5% | 17.7–42.3% | 7 months, 3,273 flights |
| Jul | 26.3% | 22.0–33.4% | 6 months, 2,909 flights |
| Aug | 27.4% | 19.6–47.0% | 6 months, 2,979 flights |
| Sep | 25.3% | 11.0–45.1% | 6 months, 2,708 flights |
| Oct | 18.8% | 14.9–22.6% | 6 months, 2,646 flights |
| Nov | 15.7% | 10.3–31.8% | 6 months, 2,478 flights |
| Dec | 32.6% | 21.4–51.0% | 6 months, 2,578 flights |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which routes have the best and worst record?
Lowest disruption: BHX ↔ GUERNSEY, 16.5% of 328 movements. Highest disruption: EXT ↔ GUERNSEY, 44.2% of 231 movements.
The airline table uses this carrier on each route; airport and country tables combine carriers. Each figure is arrivals into its UK airport. Only sufficiently large exact samples enter the ordered comparison.
All route comparisons and sample flags
| Route | Disruption | Cancellations | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHX ↔ GUERNSEY | 16.5% of 328 movements | 2.1% of 328 movements | descriptive comparison |
| London City ↔ Guernsey | 20.4% of 506 movements | 6.1% of 506 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Manchester ↔ Guernsey | 21.5% of 615 movements | 2.8% of 615 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Southampton ↔ Guernsey | 22.8% of 705 movements | 6.5% of 705 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Jersey ↔ Guernsey | 23.5% of 446 movements | 2.7% of 446 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Gatwick ↔ Guernsey | 26.0% of 2,169 movements | 2.4% of 2,169 movements | descriptive comparison |
| BRS ↔ GUERNSEY | 30.0% of 343 movements | 5.2% of 343 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Southampton ↔ Alderney | 36.3% of 443 movements | 17.2% of 443 movements | descriptive comparison |
| EXT ↔ GUERNSEY | 44.2% of 231 movements | 5.2% of 231 movements | descriptive comparison |
| EDI ↔ GUERNSEY | 26.7% of 45 movements — small sample, not ranked | 8.9% of 45 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| LBA ↔ GUERNSEY | 11.1% of 36 movements — small sample, not ranked | 2.8% of 36 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which UK airports appear in this record?
10 published groups have enough arrivals to describe.
These operations are not matched for season, aircraft or time of day. The table makes no causal comparison.
| UK airport | Disruption | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 16.5% of 328 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Bristol | 30.0% of 343 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Edinburgh | 26.7% of 45 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| Exeter | 44.0% of 232 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Jersey | 24.3% of 457 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Leeds Bradford | 11.1% of 36 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| London City | 20.4% of 506 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Gatwick | 26.0% of 2,169 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Manchester | 21.5% of 615 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Southampton | 28.1% of 1,152 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Arrivals vs departures
25.6% of 5,891 movements arrivals were disrupted, against 31.5% of 5,910 movements departures.
The directions have separate denominators. A departure delay does not establish late arrival at the final destination; legal conditions differ by direction and carrier.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Movements past the three-hour mark
1.0% of 5,891 movements were more than three hours late over July 2025 to June 2026.
Cancellation is counted separately and is not a three-hour delay. Monthly counts cannot establish a passenger claim.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Facts about this record
Aurigny Air Services appears from Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 with 37,388 arrivals.
The bounds describe the published record, not every commercial service. Final point is not necessarily a nonstop destination.
Archive route pairs: 92.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What this data cannot tell you
Delay cause, individual passenger experience, commercial decisions and future performance are not established here.
Also absent are aircraft type, within-month time-of-day splits and cancellations made ahead of the short-notice reporting window.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Quick answers
These answers use the same populations and window as the tables above.
Every percentage retains its denominator.
How disrupted are these arrivals?
25.6% of 5,891 movements over July 2025 to June 2026.
How often are they cancelled?
4.7% of 5,891 movements at short notice.
How late is late?
32.0–71.9 minutes; delayed denominator 1,234–2,600
Are services improving?
The monthly line records past changes; it is not a forecast or a causal comparison.
Which routes are compared?
The route table uses separately identified UK airport and final-point pairs, with small samples flagged.
Does this cover my flight?
Only published aggregate movements; the circumstances of any individual flight are unknown.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
How this was calculated
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
Integer bucket counts are recovered from rounding intervals over D=M+C+U with their sum constrained to M. Ambiguous counts remain ranges; failed reconciliation is quarantined.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Your trip has already gone wrong
The monthly line and events table show whether your month was typical or unusual in the published record.
Nothing here decides an individual case or what a passenger may be owed.
CAA: the official route to complainDefinitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.