How often are these flights late or cancelled?
Blue Islands Limited
In the twelve months from July 2025 to June 2026, 29.6% of 2,583 movements arriving into the UK were disrupted — more than fifteen minutes late or cancelled at short notice.
Put the other way round, 70.4% of 2,583 movements met the fifteen-minute convention. These are historical observations, not a forecast.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
The four numbers at a glance
29.6% of 2,583 movements were disrupted over July 2025 to June 2026.
Average delay covers delayed movements only. Its range reflects rounded source means and the unknown count of exactly punctual movements.
| Disruption | Short-notice cancellations | Delay among delayed movements | Over three hours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.6% of 2,583 movements | 2.9% of 2,583 movements | 40.4–79.8 minutes; delayed denominator 691–1,302 | 1.7% of 2,583 movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
When late, how late?
1.7% of 2,583 movements passed the three-hour mark.
The ladder shows how many movements crossed each threshold. Cancellations are separate: 2.9% of 2,583 movements.
| Delay | Share and sample | One event per movements |
|---|---|---|
| More than 15 minutes | 26.8% of 2,583 movements | 3.7 |
| More than 30 minutes | 18.7% of 2,583 movements | 5.3 |
| More than 60 minutes | 11.0% of 2,583 movements | 9.1 |
| More than 120 minutes | 4.9% of 2,583 movements | 20.3 |
| More than 180 minutes | 1.7% of 2,583 movements | 58.7 |
| More than 360 minutes | 0.1% of 2,583 movements | 861.0 |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Slightly late or occasionally a disaster?
4.9% of 2,583 movements passed two hours.
The histogram shows the published delay bands. Bucket shares use all reported operations, including unmatched records; cancellations are reported separately.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Better or worse since the start of the archive?
Best month: Oct 2020, 2.7% of 292 movements. Worst month: May 2025, 49.7% of 612 movements.
The line traces every month. Lower disruption is better; gaps are never zeros. Pandemic readings describe a different operating regime.
Every monthly observation
| Month | Disruption on arrivals |
|---|---|
| Jan 2018 | 22.4% of 343 movements |
| Feb 2018 | 23.7% of 198 movements |
| Mar 2018 | 29.0% of 252 movements |
| Apr 2018 | 13.9% of 266 movements |
| May 2018 | 18.3% of 311 movements |
| Jun 2018 | 16.7% of 323 movements |
| Jul 2018 | 21.9% of 338 movements |
| Aug 2018 | 25.6% of 340 movements |
| Sep 2018 | 23.8% of 307 movements |
| Oct 2018 | 24.8% of 306 movements |
| Nov 2018 | 30.0% of 313 movements |
| Dec 2018 | 42.2% of 268 movements |
| Jan 2019 | 10.8% of 277 movements |
| Feb 2019 | 28.2% of 291 movements |
| Mar 2019 | 18.7% of 343 movements |
| Apr 2019 | 15.2% of 310 movements |
| May 2019 | 18.1% of 343 movements |
| Jun 2019 | 28.3% of 381 movements |
| Jul 2019 | 18.4% of 396 movements |
| Aug 2019 | 17.8% of 400 movements |
| Sep 2019 | 16.2% of 357 movements |
| Oct 2019 | 26.6% of 364 movements |
| Nov 2019 | 20.5% of 341 movements |
| Dec 2019 | 31.9% of 285 movements |
| Jan 2020 | 24.3% of 300 movements |
| Feb 2020 | 32.7% of 303 movements |
| Mar 2020 | 32.1% of 265 movements |
| Apr 2020 | 2.4% of 42 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| May 2020 | 17.1% of 35 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Jun 2020 | 41.1% of 56 movements |
| Jul 2020 | 2.9% of 69 movements |
| Aug 2020 | 11.1% of 108 movements |
| Sep 2020 | 8.3% of 276 movements |
| Oct 2020 | 2.7% of 292 movements |
| Nov 2020 | 7.2% of 83 movements |
| Dec 2020 | 5.9% of 119 movements |
| Jan 2021 | 10.9% of 64 movements |
| Feb 2021 | 28.6% of 42 movements — small sample, not ranked |
| Mar 2021 | 46.7% of 60 movements |
| Apr 2021 | 15.7% of 51 movements |
| May 2021 | 10.9% of 193 movements |
| Jun 2021 | 20.1% of 294 movements |
| Jul 2021 | 22.8% of 425 movements |
| Aug 2021 | 21.9% of 503 movements |
| Sep 2021 | 22.7% of 507 movements |
| Oct 2021 | 26.1% of 525 movements |
| Nov 2021 | 22.6% of 557 movements |
| Dec 2021 | 32.6% of 521 movements |
| Jan 2022 | 11.1% of 443 movements |
| Feb 2022 | 27.3% of 432 movements |
| Mar 2022 | 15.7% of 527 movements |
| Apr 2022 | 28.6% of 605 movements |
| May 2022 | 29.0% of 634 movements |
| Jun 2022 | 35.1% of 664 movements |
| Jul 2022 | 31.7% of 717 movements |
| Aug 2022 | 28.5% of 710 movements |
| Sep 2022 | 31.6% of 677 movements |
| Oct 2022 | 20.8% of 597 movements |
| Nov 2022 | 5.0% of 542 movements |
| Dec 2022 | 32.8% of 473 movements |
| Jan 2023 | 13.9% of 425 movements |
| Feb 2023 | 13.6% of 450 movements |
| Mar 2023 | 21.2% of 552 movements |
| Apr 2023 | 26.9% of 595 movements |
| May 2023 | 26.0% of 624 movements |
| Jun 2023 | 22.0% of 678 movements |
| Jul 2023 | 37.2% of 721 movements |
| Aug 2023 | 31.2% of 728 movements |
| Sep 2023 | 28.2% of 656 movements |
| Oct 2023 | 17.7% of 603 movements |
| Nov 2023 | 18.2% of 527 movements |
| Dec 2023 | 26.4% of 481 movements |
| Jan 2024 | 22.5% of 409 movements |
| Feb 2024 | 25.9% of 410 movements |
| Mar 2024 | 22.9% of 494 movements |
| Apr 2024 | 27.0% of 577 movements |
| May 2024 | 45.2% of 617 movements |
| Jun 2024 | 32.6% of 635 movements |
| Jul 2024 | 22.5% of 676 movements |
| Aug 2024 | 29.8% of 658 movements |
| Sep 2024 | 42.5% of 616 movements |
| Oct 2024 | 20.3% of 566 movements |
| Nov 2024 | 29.6% of 446 movements |
| Dec 2024 | 31.6% of 402 movements |
| Jan 2025 | 39.0% of 341 movements |
| Feb 2025 | 27.1% of 325 movements |
| Mar 2025 | 21.9% of 401 movements |
| Apr 2025 | 40.6% of 542 movements |
| May 2025 | 49.7% of 612 movements |
| Jun 2025 | 43.1% of 591 movements |
| Jul 2025 | 37.0% of 598 movements |
| Aug 2025 | 27.1% of 624 movements |
| Sep 2025 | 41.5% of 564 movements |
| Oct 2025 | 16.8% of 537 movements |
| Nov 2025 | 19.6% of 260 movements |
| Dec 2025 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jan 2026 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Feb 2026 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Mar 2026 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Apr 2026 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| May 2026 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
| Jun 2026 | suppressed: fewer than twenty movements |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What did the big disruptions do here?
Each event is compared with the twelve preceding calendar months and the first later return to baseline.
A worse month is not proof the named event caused it. The open data carry no delay-cause field. Recovery is observed for at most eight subsequent months.
| Event | Direction | Disruption that month | Baseline before | Return to baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Arrivals | 41.1% of 56 movements | 22.4% across 3,469 flights | returned the next month |
| Pandemic regime · Jun 2020 | Departures | 53.6% of 56 movements | 22.2% across 3,467 flights | returned the next month |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Arrivals | 31.7% of 717 movements | 24.6% across 6,343 flights | returned after 3 months |
| Summer 2022 breakdown · Jul 2022 | Departures | 33.8% of 714 movements | 27.6% across 6,357 flights | returned after 3 months |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Arrivals | 31.2% of 728 movements | 23.3% across 7,044 flights | returned after 2 months |
| NATS system failure · Aug 2023 | Departures | 31.7% of 725 movements | 24.9% across 7,052 flights | returned after 2 months |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Arrivals | 21.9% of 401 movements | 30.8% across 6,353 flights | returned after 5 months |
| Heathrow fire closure · Mar 2025 | Departures | 20.8% of 403 movements | 31.6% across 6,384 flights | returned after 5 months |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which time of year has been hardest?
Highest median: Dec, 31.9% across 5 months. Lowest median: Jan, 18.2% across 6 months.
Even the same calendar month differs across years. This is a record, not a forecast; pandemic years are excluded from the summaries.
Each cell is one calendar month of one year; the number is the share of that month’s arrivals that were disrupted. Darker means worse. A blank cell means no published data, not zero.
Month-by-month table: median, observed range and sample
| Month | Median | Observed range | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 18.2% | 10.8–39.0% | 6 months, 2,238 flights |
| Feb | 26.5% | 13.6–28.2% | 6 months, 2,106 flights |
| Mar | 21.6% | 15.7–29.0% | 6 months, 2,569 flights |
| Apr | 27.0% | 13.9–40.6% | 6 months, 2,895 flights |
| May | 27.5% | 18.1–49.7% | 6 months, 3,141 flights |
| Jun | 30.5% | 16.7–43.1% | 6 months, 3,272 flights |
| Jul | 27.1% | 18.4–37.2% | 6 months, 3,446 flights |
| Aug | 27.8% | 17.8–31.2% | 6 months, 3,460 flights |
| Sep | 29.9% | 16.2–42.5% | 6 months, 3,177 flights |
| Oct | 20.5% | 16.8–26.6% | 6 months, 2,973 flights |
| Nov | 20.1% | 5.0–30.0% | 6 months, 2,429 flights |
| Dec | 31.9% | 26.4–42.2% | 5 months, 1,909 flights |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which routes have the best and worst record?
Lowest disruption: JER ↔ SOUTHAMPTON, 21.3% of 413 movements. Highest disruption: JER ↔ BRISTOL, 41.0% of 161 movements.
The airline table uses this carrier on each route; airport and country tables combine carriers. Each figure is arrivals into its UK airport. Only sufficiently large exact samples enter the ordered comparison.
All route comparisons and sample flags
| Route | Disruption | Cancellations | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jersey ↔ Southampton | 21.3% of 413 movements | 2.2% of 413 movements | descriptive comparison |
| EMA ↔ JERSEY | 24.2% of 128 movements | 0.8% of 128 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Southampton ↔ Jersey | 24.4% of 422 movements | 4.0% of 422 movements | descriptive comparison |
| JER ↔ EXETER | 27.2% of 136 movements | 1.5% of 136 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Jersey ↔ Guernsey | 27.9% of 391 movements | 1.3% of 391 movements | descriptive comparison |
| EXT ↔ JERSEY | 28.3% of 113 movements | no events in 113 movements | descriptive comparison |
| JER ↔ EAST-MIDLANDS-INTERNATIONAL | 34.1% of 129 movements | 1.6% of 129 movements | descriptive comparison |
| BRS ↔ JERSEY | 37.3% of 169 movements | 5.3% of 169 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Southampton ↔ Guernsey | 39.9% of 306 movements | 7.5% of 306 movements | descriptive comparison |
| JER ↔ BRISTOL | 41.0% of 161 movements | 1.9% of 161 movements | descriptive comparison |
| JER ↔ DUBLIN | 23.9% of 46 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 46 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| JER ↔ NORWICH | 20.8% of 24 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 24 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| JER ↔ PARIS-CHARLES-DE-GAULLE | 22.2% of 36 movements — small sample, not ranked | no events in 36 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| NCL ↔ JERSEY | 25.9% of 27 movements — small sample, not ranked | 3.7% of 27 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Which UK airports appear in this record?
6 published groups have enough arrivals to describe.
These operations are not matched for season, aircraft or time of day. The table makes no causal comparison.
| UK airport | Disruption | Sample flag |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol | 37.1% of 170 movements | descriptive comparison |
| East Midlands International | 24.2% of 128 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Exeter | 26.4% of 125 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Jersey | 28.6% of 1,386 movements | descriptive comparison |
| Newcastle | 35.6% of 45 movements — small sample, not ranked | small sample; not ranked |
| Southampton | 30.9% of 728 movements | descriptive comparison |
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Arrivals vs departures
29.6% of 2,583 movements arrivals were disrupted, against 30.4% of 2,587 movements departures.
The directions have separate denominators. A departure delay does not establish late arrival at the final destination; legal conditions differ by direction and carrier.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Movements past the three-hour mark
1.7% of 2,583 movements were more than three hours late over July 2025 to June 2026.
Cancellation is counted separately and is not a three-hour delay. Monthly counts cannot establish a passenger claim.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Facts about this record
Blue Islands Limited appears from Jan 2018 to Nov 2025 with 39,305 arrivals.
The bounds describe the published record, not every commercial service. Final point is not necessarily a nonstop destination.
Archive route pairs: 209.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
What this data cannot tell you
Delay cause, individual passenger experience, commercial decisions and future performance are not established here.
Also absent are aircraft type, within-month time-of-day splits and cancellations made ahead of the short-notice reporting window.
0 operations (0.00%) excluded because their published percentages could not be reconciled to whole numbers. Excluded operations enter neither the numerator nor the denominator. Outcome figures and comparisons are unavailable when the excluded share exceeds fifteen percent.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Quick answers
These answers use the same populations and window as the tables above.
Every percentage retains its denominator.
How disrupted are these arrivals?
29.6% of 2,583 movements over July 2025 to June 2026.
How often are they cancelled?
2.9% of 2,583 movements at short notice.
How late is late?
40.4–79.8 minutes; delayed denominator 691–1,302
Are services improving?
The monthly line records past changes; it is not a forecast or a causal comparison.
Which routes are compared?
The route table uses separately identified UK airport and final-point pairs, with small samples flagged.
Does this cover my flight?
Only published aggregate movements; the circumstances of any individual flight are unknown.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
How this was calculated
Source: CAA punctuality statistics · snapshot 17/08/2026 10:24 · method route-record-v2.1 · Versioned claims, formulas and entity mapping.
Integer bucket counts are recovered from rounding intervals over D=M+C+U with their sum constrained to M. Ambiguous counts remain ranges; failed reconciliation is quarantined.
Definitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.
Your trip has already gone wrong
The monthly line and events table show whether your month was typical or unusual in the published record.
Nothing here decides an individual case or what a passenger may be owed.
CAA: the official route to complainDefinitions, denominators and limits
Arrivals into UK reporting airports only unless labelled departures. Denominator: operated movements plus short-notice cancellations (M+C). A movement is not a scheduled flight. Unmatched records are data quality, not outcomes. Cells below twenty movements are suppressed; twenty to forty-nine are descriptive and not ranked.